Im concerned with realistic solutions. Israel has all the power here, the reality is that any solution will be one that benefits them, and hopefully palestinians are willing to go along with.
Israel can be forced into concessions just as South Africa was, if external actors - most notably, US - stop bankrolling them, and start applying sanctions instead. It only has all the power because others let it have that power, and even contribute directly to increasing said power.
I disagree. Israel is self sufficient and has a much stronger economy than SA ever did. Israel also now has substantial oil reserves which makes sanctions difficult. Israels military is completely sufficient and would be able to oppress palestine just fine without international support. In my estimation the only thing sanctions would do is push Israel toward its final solution to the palestinian problem as they no longer see a downside to ending the issue once and for all.
Israel has nuclear weapons, its not possible to actually force them to do anything.
We don't have much oil, we do have gas reserves.
Whatever you fill up your car with - we don't have. Last I heard we import our oil from Azerbijan - a friendly Muslim country with common enemies.
Also most calories e.g food are imported. Most agricultural fertilizers, chips and electronics for missiles, cars etc etc. There is talk now in Israel of becoming more independent - especially in regards to arms, but it's going to take a long time and I'm not positive how well Israel can make it. It's a very small country after all. Israel needs to deal with Iran who is supported by Russia and to a lesser extent by China. How long can Israel make it alone against the world's biggest superpowers without the U.S on its side?
And even if Israel can make it like North Korea, I don't think most Israelis would want that kind of life of being completely isolated from the world. If Israeli existence is reduced to isolation and extreme poverty - most would give up I think.
> don't think most Israelis would want that kind of life of being completely isolated from the world.
I've never been to Israel but have friends there. I disagree with 'most', they are very resilient and will not leave their home. I offered my home to one mother with a newborn while they were living in a bunker. They would rather stay at home with rockets hitting them than flee.
Interesting take.
We're just speculating here, it's a very extreme scenario so hard to say. The reason I'm skeptic about it is that most Israelis got used to quite high standards of living - comparable to say France or UK (gdp wise).
Complete isolation would bring Israel to the standards of living it had in the 50s.
But your point is important - some Israelis will certainly not give up no matter what.
>In my estimation the only thing sanctions would do is push Israel toward its final solution to the palestinian problem as they no longer see a downside to ending the issue once and for all.
Now that's an interesting thought, I hadn't considered that as a consequence of the US pushing too hard.
I have spent days researching the history of this. The problem in its entirety is Zionism. The only way for Zionism to remain, is for Israel to be permanently at war. Research Likud, read about Netanyahu, Zionism is the contagion and a Forever War is their answer.
Should the Palestinians have agency and self determination?
> Should the Palestinians have agency and self determination?
It doesnt matter what they "should" have. Israel wont give it to them while they think it would undermine their security, and no one has the ability to force them to.
Sure it does! If we can't agree on what should be, we can never make anything happen. And we all do have agency on how the Palestinians are treated. To deny that is to be complicit.
Of course West has the power. The generational shift in US is very clear - GenZ openly does not want to have anyrhing to do with israel. It will carry on and increase with everry next generation. How are you gonna sustain israel in this kind of enviromnent?
I don't know, it's a good question and it might be unsustainable.
Another question is how do you dismantle a country threatened by war and genocidal intentions on all borders , a country that's a nuclear power? What's the end game here - let Israel die and hope the population makes it out OK and that Palestinians happily co exist with Israelis? While some use South Africa as an example where this happened peacefully, there are many more examples where this ended up in a huge massacres - Yugoslavia, Syria, Iraq etc.
The realistic best case scenario for Israel is Israel collapsing and the vast majority of the Jews fleeing alive to wherever they can. Other scenarios are Jews getting massacred in huge numbers and even nuclear war.
The way things are going, the earlier West understands/accepts insustainability of current israel, the less bloody will be the end result. israel could even survive as a Jewish state, but that would require massive diplomatic effort of many forces.
I think better plans need to be made for dismantling a country (that's what you're aiming at right?) in such a volatile part of the world. It can already be extremely bloody, as I said there are genocidal threats against Israel on all borders and Israel as a nuclear power can become genocidal too if it feels its own people are at risk of a second holocaust.
Simply crippling Israel's economy so it collapses and hoping for the best sounds like a very bad idea to me.
Israel is already genocidal. I am not in fact aiming at dismantling israel. What I am saying this will happen anyway, if West won't change its approach.
The first casualty of war is the truth. Many of the atrocious events by Hamas are not as clear cut as originally reported. It looks like the primary goal of Hamas was to capture hostages for a large scale prisoner exchange. The IDF over reacted and to suppress the capture of hostages, killing both Hamas fighters and Israeli citizens. I am describing the situation, not absolving anything or anyone.
Even if your claims are true, he has valuable insights and connects things in ways that others do not. The phrase "wouldn't share" is an interesting way to suppress a viewpoint.
I still watch mainstream news even though it is compromised financially, ethically and politically.
I agree, any solution that is unpopular to Israelis will be opposed by their democratically elected government that happens to have the military power to prevent it. Even if people elsewhere don't like it
