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The civilian death toll in Gaza has been tragically high but there hasn't been any independent verification. Regardless of what's on Wikipedia, we can't trust specific numbers.



- Israel's own numbers say "2 civilians killed for every one militant"[1], that's 66%

- 766 / 1200 = 63.8%

Of course, the numbers claimed by other NGOs / UN make it worse. But Israel's numbers are sufficient to make that claim.

[1] - https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/05/middleeast/israel-hamas-m...


Hamas can't go toe-to-toe with the IDF. They are hiding in tunnels and among civilians, so these ratios aren't surprising.

To some extent, you can't blame Hamas for these tactics. They would quickly lose a conventional war. At the same time, if you have zero chance of winning a military victory, perhaps you shouldn't use violence to pursue your political goals...


Yes right, if israel is unable to fight conventional war, without massive disproportional amount of civil casualties, they should not probably engage in one.


Looking at the historical data, that tends to be a pattern of urban warfare, not the IDF.

Civilian/combatant fatality ratios of 3/1 are not uncommon in urban warfare.


As if we know how many Hamas fighters have been killed at the first place. According to the official stats there is like 259 IDF casualties during the land operation. Which means that death ratio is 30:1 wrt to supposed 8000 Hamas death.Laughable.

Even then, military necessity of killing combatants, not actively particpating in the war is not justified. Yes, you can kill those, who is shooting the rockets at Tel-Aviv, but bombing willy-nilly all of Gaza just because there might be tunnels, where potential combatants might be hiding,. is not acceptable, although not am not an international law lawer.


Well, it is not acceptable, and it seems like the ICJ has, indeed, not accepted it.


That wasn't their choice ...


"No choice" is how all genocidaires justified their actions.


What’s the alternative? Just no response and wait for Hamas' next attack?


Then they shouldn’t. That’s the simple answer of it. If they want to get rid of Hamas they will need to find another way. This level of civilian casualty is unacceptable. And as proven by the ICJ decision, it is not accepted.


The state of israel agrees with and trust sthe numbers coming from Gaza: https://www.newarab.com/news/israeli-intel-confirms-gaza-hea...


While their statistics are regarded as an accurate account of the total death toll, they make no distinction between civilian and combatant deaths. This is obviously a crucial shortcoming if we are trying to ascertain whether the number of civilian deaths are disproportionate to the military objectives.


If we go all 19th century and assert that all men over the age of 18 are combatants. Then we get 70% of the deaths are civilian, and 30% are combatants. However we know a large number of adult men killed in Gaza or not combatants, e.g. they are journalists, UN workers, poets, university professors, etc. So 66% civilians seems very likely to be a huge underestimate.


On the other hand “journalists” and UN workers aren’t disjoint from militants or terrorists. We just learned that UNRWA employees took part in Oct 7.


What are you implying? That Samer Abu Daqqa, cameraman for al Jazeera killed in an Israeli strike on december 15th is a Hamas combatant? This is some serious accusation which requires some serious proofs.

Here is a list of the 88 (and growing) journalists so far killed in Gaza [1]. I would be impressed if you could find any shred of evidence that any one of them was an active duty combatant when they were murdered.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_...


The IDF at least claims that two of the names there are militants: https://t.me/idfofficial/6370

> Mustafa Thuria, identified in a document found by IDF troops in Gaza, was a member of Hamas' Gaza City Brigade, serving as Squad Deputy Commander in the al-Qadisiyyah Battalion.

> Hamza Wael al-Dahdouh, is an Islamic Jihad terrorist, and was involved in the organization’s terrorist activities. Documents found by IDF troops in the Gaza Strip reveal his role in the Islamic Jihad's electronic engineering unit and his previous role as a deputy commander in the Zeitun Battalion's Rocket Array.

I think others have been shown wielding rifles or taking part in Oct 7, but I'll need to dig up the links when I have more time.

Edit: See e.g. https://www.instagram.com/p/C17sCXPMKqW/?img_index=3. I don't think it should come as a surprise that some journalists participate in combat on the side; there are many examples throughout history of desperate defenders handing out weapons to civilians. Kyiv was a recent example.


Hamza al-Dahdouh and Mustafa Thuraya were not active combatants when they were killed:

> According to Al Jazeera correspondent Hisham Zaqout, Hamza al-Dahdouh and a group of journalists were en route to the Moraj area north-east of Rafah - which was designated a "humanitarian zone" by the Israeli army - but which had reportedly experienced recent bombings.

They were fleeing an area in Khan Younis being bombed to a designated safe zone in Rafah when their car was hit by an Israeli missile.

Even if we take the IDF at their words—which we shouldn’t—this is still not a shred of evidence they were active combatants when they were killed.

But we shouldn’t take IDF at their words, they have been proven to lie consistently when they target journalist. A high profile case was when they murdered Shireen Abu Akleh, changing their story multiple times until, finally, when the evidence against their story was so overwhelming, they finally admitted to targeting her.

As for the instagram thread. We really need a name to go with this. Who is this person? Is he on the list of the 88 which the Israel has murdered so far? ~The second photo doesn’t even look like it is the same person, and the third photo even looks photoshopped (and fails to show other results in a reverse google image search)~ [wrong, see edit].

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67905566

EDIT: I found the origin of the photos in the instagram thread: https://nabd.com/s/121499899-f165c6/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B3...

His name was Muhyiddin Muhammad Muhammad al-Sadoudi and was a 24 year old fighter for the al-Qassam brigade, who died during active training in July last year, not by the Israeli army, and not in the current war. Only claimed to be a fighter, and never claimed to be a photojournalist by Hamas’s armed wing. He is not on the list of the 88 journalists in Gaza murdered by the Israeli army.


When you say they were not active combatants, what do you mean by that? If they were retired (which seems unlikely) that's one thing, but if they were just not on the frontlines, that wouldn't make them them illegitimate targets under the Geneva Conventions.

Thanks for getting to the bottom of those photos which admittedly lacked context. I didn't meant to suggest that he was in the list of journalists killed by the IDF; I didn't even know he was deceased. I think the point stands that both freelance photojournalism and guerilla fighting can be done in a part-time and/or non-professional capacity.


I mean if they are in an active combat mission posing a threat to Israeli solders or civilians. But reading more about this case it turns out I was wrong if we take the IDF at their words—which we shouldn’t to:

> “Prior to the strike, the two operated drones, posing an imminent threat to IDF troops.”

If this is true then they were indeed legitimate targets. However if what Al Jazeera says is true, then they were not.

> When asked on Jan 10 by AFP about what kind of drones were used by the two men and the nature of the threat the drones posed to Israeli troops, the army said it was “checking”.

> It said Mr Thuria was identified in a document found by troops in Gaza to be a member of Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade, while Mr Dahdouh was identified as a terrorist belonging to Islamic Jihad.

> The army statement included a copy of a document it said was a list of “operatives from an electronic engineering unit of the Islamic Jihad, including Dahdouh and his military number”.

So we pretty much have Israel says so, which is not good evidence, or any evidence for that matter. However the Al Jazeera story has witnesses:

> He [Mr Thuria] and Mr Dahdouh had been tasked with filming the aftermath of a strike on a house in Rafah, and their car was hit while they were on their way back, AFP correspondents said at the time.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-army-c...


Do you believe 695 Israeli civilians, 373 security forces and 71 foreigners, giving a total of 1,139? They're all numbers from the Israeli government.

Weird how only disputing the Hamas numbers as biased is a talking point.


It is way easier to verify those numbers though, there is an actual list of names and journalists can (and have) talk to the families etc.


And from talking to families and people on the ground there there are some reports that IDF killed many Isreali civilians on that day [1]. The extent is not obvious without independent investigation of course.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-mistakenly-hit-festival-...


Lists of names for Palestinian victims are published as well: https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2024/israel-war-on-gaz...


True, verifying 695 deaths is easier than 30 times that number. Also convenient then that journalists are allowed to safely operate there.


kinda different comparing a state with an organization that was caught lying about death statistics numerous times in the past [1] and including in this war (such as the ali ahli hospital incident).

it should raise some questions how the casualty count went to 500 in a few hours, where everywhere else in the world it takes days to get a body count after any disaster

It is beyond me how someone can believe that an organization capable of kidnapping babies to advance its political goals is beyond lying to do the same

[1] https://www.haaretz.com/2010-11-09/ty-article/hamas-admits-6...


There are lies and errors. From both sides. But the 26000 figure is generally accepted by the UN and aid agencies. Figures from Hamas in previous conflicts have been confirmed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Israel–Hamas... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-death-toll-records-1.7010...

Simply dismissing a figure as skewed because of its source without a better one is a weak argument.


it is accepted by the UN because there is no other figure. they have no other way of estimating, also the UN is far from a neutral element in this conflict

The UN is a political body composed of the political interests of its members, which are mostly authoritarian states, and it hasn’t shown much support for Israel due to the vast membership of Islamic countries. Parody case in point, Iran being Human Rights commission seat

UNRWA, the UN agency on the ground was shown again and again to be in the very least in the mercy of Hamas therefore cooperative, at most its infrastructure and staff was used by the organizations for attacks against Israel and to hold hostages.

The ICJ in this case heavily quoted UNRWA as a source while it is an extremely problematic one.

The hospital bombing I quoted above is an example case where many experts tried to estimate casualties based on evidence, they arrived to figures that range from tenth to fifth of what Hamas published.

This together with the fact they control the casualty figure and have a clear interest at inflating it in order to stop Israel from attacking, is pretty obvious to me what’s going on.

Leaving the fact that this figure also includes Hamas members, and therefore is useless at estimating if there is excessive collateral damage


That's just motivated reasoning. The UN is multidisciplinary. If you have a better source, present it.

Even if the true numbers are a quarter of the given figure that's still way too high.


the fact there isn’t a better source does not make the only source reliable.

This is going to be a major issue when the actual court case will have to rely upon it.

the numbers will always be ‘too high’ as they are the number of civilian deaths in a war.

However, if they are much lower relative to similar conflicts than that changes a lot. Currently we have no way of knowing that, yet still people attribute these numbers some magical properties


The precise number doesn't matter if it would be unacceptable at an order of magnitude lower.


> Weird how only disputing the Hamas numbers as biased is a talking point.

Why are you surprised that people trust Israel more than Hamas? Israel is a country that's ranked 29 of 167 on the Democracy Index[1], right _above_ the US. Hamas is literally a terrorist organization recognized in many countries, probably yours too.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index


So what? Democracies can't lie? Israel hasn't?


Hamas is a known bad actor - with a variety of incidences discrediting their “reporting”.




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