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I usually refrain from making much political commentary.

I will say this: SA is a deeply troubled country, but for once I think the ruling government has actually done a good thing by pursuing this.




Have you read through their case? It's pretty weak in my opinion. They seem to think that any war with a high number of casualties and insufficient humanitarian aid counts as genocide. By their standard the US committed "genocide" against Japan in WW2, arguably Germany too.


By todays standard it would be a genocide. How do you think people would react if e.g. Russia nuked 2 large cities in Ukraine leading to 100K+ deaths?


It would be a prelude to WW3 with an increasing likelihood of nuclear escalation. In which case cities in Russia, Europe and the US would be at risk.


> By their standard the US committed "genocide" against Japan in WW2, arguably Germany too.

Germany, yes? That's the primary example of genocide in the 20th century.

"The Holocaust was the genocide of European Jews during World War II." (First sentence of Wikipedia.)

(I think widespread bombing of cities is a different crime.)


The person isn’t saying that Germany committed genocide during WW2, which is obviously true, but pointing out that by the above definition of genocide, the US committed genocide against Germany and Japan during WW2.


That isn't my reading of the case


Or they’re just trying to gain brownie points from the people who support Hamas.


Is there anyone who supports Hamas? I think most people just want Palestinians to live free.


Almost 3 in 4 Palestinians believe the October 7th attack was "correct"

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/poll-shows-palesti...


I keep hearing that they exist, but I've yet to encounter anyone that is pro Hamas


I’m also not sure why SA would want to “gain brownie points from the people who support Hamas”. Wouldn’t they want to earn brownie points from those who support Israel, like the US, who they’d benefit more from?


SA’s bargaining power will wane if the world order tips more and more in favor of the West.


> South Africa asks ICC to exempt it from Putin arrest

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2YY1E6/

SA does not really present itself as an earnest or true actor in the sphere oh human rights.


> SA does not really present itself as an earnest or true actor in the sphere oh human rights.

Well, who does?

Among the major players in world politics I can't see any country with a clean reputation on human rights.

Disclaimer: I am Brazilian, a country with an horrible record of police brutality, of farmers killing indigenous people and environmental activists and an hypocritical ambivalence towards Putin's crimes. And that goes to the previous right-wing and current left-wing governments.


I mean, sure. Personally, I’m a relativist. It’s just weird to see the country that recently bent itself backwards—like no other country—to let Vladimir Putin into its territory (it was reported they even considering leaving the ICC), is now bringing suit in the ICC for arguably less worse crimes than Putin. SA was not just apathetic to the genocide/domicide in Ukraine, it basically went out of its way to be party to it. Now it’s taking Israel to court. strange. Sure, many countries are still dealing with Russia, but only SA is dealing with Russia _and_ bringing countries to The Hague at the same time.


"for arguably less worse crimes than Putin"

How many civilians have died in the Ukraine and in Gaza?

"to the genocide/domicide in Ukraine"

That's very frivolous use of the word 'genocide'.

"Now it’s taking Israel to court."

Don't you think that it should have been done by the countries which took Russia to the court? They have done nothing. Strange.


Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Ukraine.

Putin is explicitly aiming to destroy Ukrainian national identity, which is genocide. He has disappeared countless people in the occupied territories… literally, countless, no one knows how many because rights orgs don’t operate there. He’s indicted by the ICC for stealing children from occupied territories to solve the Russian “demographic crisis,” and to remove the future generation of Ukrainians. There’s nothing frivolous about this, ask a Ukrainian. See Putin’s many speeches, including from February 24, to this effect, he doesn’t believe Ukrainians or Ukraine has a right to exist, and believed that Ukrainians can be dispensed with like subhumans.


> Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Ukraine.

Can you link some credible references for this?

The OHCHR, as of October 2023, listed 10,000 killed and 18,000 wounded.

https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-civilian-casual...

For that estimate to be off by AT LEAST an order of magnitude as you are claiming requires quite a bit of evidence.


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Sadly I don’t have time right now for a complete response, but for example, in just the battle of Mariupol:

Per Russia: 3,000+ civilians killed[43] Per Ukraine: 25,000+ civilians killed[44] 50,000+ deported[45]


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Who’s reporting the figures from Gaza that everyone is using?


"Mortality reporting is a crucial indicator of the severity of a conflict setting, but it can also be inflated or under-reported for political purposes. Amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, some political parties have indicated scepticism about the reporting of fatalities by the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH). The Gaza MoH has historically reported accurate mortality data, with discrepancies between MoH reporting and independent United Nations analyses ranging from 1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts. A comparison between the Gaza MoH and Israeli Foreign Ministry mortality figures for the 2014 war yielded an 8·0% discrepancy. Public scepticism of the current reports by the Gaza MoH might undermine the efforts to reduce civilian harm and provide life-saving assistance." [0]

[0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...


SA is dealing with Russia, so it might want to help Russia’s allies, and one of them is Iran who incidentally dreams of nothing less than, well, wiping Israel off the map with wiping out Jews as a cherry on top. Oops.

It’s all a tangled mess and I wouldn’t haste to take everything diplomats say at face value.


This is what it looks like to me too.


Arresting a head of a nuclear-armed state ? One that does not subscribe to the ICC ? How moronic would one have to be ?

Amusingly, the Biden govt had no issues officially supporting the ICC to deliver a ruling against Russia despite the US not being a party to the ICC themselves. That's like having your cake and eating it too.

None of China, India, Russia, and the United States are parties to the ICC.


> South Africa asks ICC to exempt it from Putin arrest

"to avoid war with Russia" was how the rest of that headline went, along with two quotes about how Russia said such an arrest would be considered an act of war.

While I would welcome Putin's arrest, I can't exactly fault South Africa for saying they'd rather not go to war.


They can avoid arresting Putin by not allowing a plane with Putin to land in South Africa.


Well it didn't. Putin never ended up going there, he attended the BRICS summit remotely.


There's 0 chance of Putin get arrested if he lands in SA. This is international law summarized in one sentence


> SA does not really present itself as an earnest or true actor in the sphere oh human rights.

Adversarial justice systems are an approach to dealing with the fact that individual actors in a system (including states in the international system) tend to be self-interested rather than earnest or true consistent advocates of the notional rules of the system.


And the US had threatened military force and sanctions should ICC ever decide to go after American. So what's your point?


The US actually put sanctions on the members of the ICC. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_Internat...


> SA does not really present itself as an earnest or true actor in the sphere oh human rights.

If Putin is arrested in a foreign country, you'll have the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world staring down at the very existence of that nation. No country would do this, however earnest they may be about human rights. Neither will it be fair to expect anyone to do this.


> If Putin is arrested in a foreign country, you'll have the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world staring down at the very existence of that nation

Eh, or not. Putin isn’t Russia. Depending on timing, it might be a convenient time for a change in government. They could then demand his remittance, where he would no doubt get lost along the way or have a change of heart about his place in public policy.

That said, the prudent thing to do is that which was done. Barring Putin from entering South Africa.


"you'll have the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world staring down at the very existence of that nation"

Do you really think that Russian government and military would kill in cold blood tens of millions of people over Putin's fate?

Besides, they would be too busy jockeying for power after Putin is out of the game.


So you want to play a game of Russian roulette? If you and your kind are the only potential victims I'd say go for it. Otherwise thanks but no.


My point is that no game of Russian roulette would be played in this case.

"If you and your kind are the only potential victims I'd say go for it."

That's a lot of hate towards me and 'my kind'.


There is no hate here. If you want to risk your existence go ahead. We live in a free world. If you want to endanger my life - well fuck you.

I am having trouble finding any hate in here.


If I were South African, I'd want my government to not risk nuclear annihilation (or even blackmail) - however small the risk may be.

And if you aren't South African, and especially if you live in a country under NATO's nuclear umbrella, you have no business telling them they should risk their lives (for whatever reason).


True

Nation states are often immoral and hypocritical

The outrage from the USA at the invasion of Ukraine, when the invasion of Iraq is a crime of the same magnitude - both dreadful stains on humanity

Most recently the international support for the actions of the IDF whilst condemning Russian actions in Ukraine

SA is just normal in this regard


From a narrow, legalistic perspective Iraq was in material breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1441 in 2003 and so the invasion was justified on that basis. I am not arguing that the invasion was right (or even remotely a good idea), just that it was never firmly established as illegal under any treaty in force at the time. By contrast, there was never even a fig leaf of a legal justification for Russia's invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/478123?ln=en


>"so the invasion was justified on that basis"

Bullshit. There was nothing in the resolution that called for war. The most it had said was in tune of - you must comply and if you don't we will report you. No particular enforcement.

the resolution is here - https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N02/682/26/PDF...

>"it was never firmly established as illegal"

Really? It was an act of aggression. It is illegal by definition unless the UN had explicitly decided otherwise which I believe it did not.


> The outrage from the USA at the invasion of Ukraine, when the invasion of Iraq is a crime of the same magnitude.

I was certainly against it in 2003. The WMDs were bullshit. A war on "terror" is farcical. The profiteering and the industrial military complex, etc.

But I did later come around to the idea of getting Saddam and his government to stop genociding the Kurds.

Of course you should always assume a country like the US to be self-serving in its actions, but it's not as if it was taking additional land as its own, as is the case with Russia and Israel. Iraq was never going to be the 51st state.


Yeah, they invaded Iraq, destabilized the country, and killed hundreds of thousands of civilians. No biggie.


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Well, we could conclude with this logic that all countries are politically motivated. After all, the countries that condemned the Russia's invasion of Ukraine were also the countries that abstained from supporting the South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.

Moreover, it should not be forgotten that there is a much bigger number of civilians deaths in Gaza than Ukraine. In one month the number of deaths surpassed civilian casualties in Ukraine war. There is a more serious problem there than in Ukraine.


The number for just Mariupol alone very likely remains higher but there's no one to count the deaths there.


You can literally drive there and drink Bumble coffee on the beach.


When has SA ever been quiet about apartheid?


There isnt a genocide going on in Ukraine. Both sides have made the accusation but there's nothing meeting the legal threshold like there is in Gaza.


Yeah, unlike in Ukraine, Gaza’s hospitals are firing back.


They are but apparently it's ok because "what choice do they have"?

https://www.politico.eu/article/amnesty-ukraine-report-wrong...

>The report on Ukraine doesn’t even address what the alternative fate of the country’s civilians might have been had their military stood aside


This is the same government that was just months prior going to quit the ICC so they could host Putin. They have no credibility, and frankly, no fucking power for most of the day. Utterly failed state.


> host Putin. They have no credibility

and they’d credible if they hosted Joe Biden?




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