What modern phone charges at 48V? I'm not aware of any that charge at even 20V, outside of a couple of gimmick devices. No Samsung or Apple phone charges at anywhere close to that, that's for sure.
12V isn't a 'standard' USB-PD voltage, so pretty much none of them. Tons of phones charge at 9V, though. And some use 15V.
The regulators/buck converters you speak of are inside the phones these days. They want a higher voltage even if the battery itself is 3-4.2V, so losses from cabling are lower and you don't need a special 5A cable to handle charging at the fastest rate.
I'd fully expect other car makers to move to an exclusive 48V setup at some point. They just do it gradually: For the new model a part is replaced by its next-gen successor that is incompatible anyway? Put it on the 48V bus. Repeat until the 12V system is done away with - or force the issue when there are only a few components left, or downstep the 48V to 12V right in front of them, once that's cheaper than keeping the remaining 12V system.
It'd be cheaper to delete the 12V bus entirely and add 48V -> 12V converters in front of legacy components, even if they needed several dozen of those converters.
I think all the wires/communication are but some of the devices attached are lower then 48V, some very low voltage, and some might be 12V. We will see when its taken apart.
> I've seen estimates of $1000 in reduced cost due to reduced copper wiring
What about aluminum wiring? Lighter, cheaper, though bulkier than equivalent copper. Aluminum wiring got a bad rep back in the day, but it seems with current electrical aluminum standards it supposedly works pretty well.
Aluminum is hell to terminate. It basically requires ultrasonic welding; every trade-show has folks hawking various crimp terminals that're meant to break through the surface oxides during the crimp cycle, but not a single automaker has been swayed enough to use it on normal wiring.
The reliability concerns really add up with flexing fatigue, too. It's one thing to put aluminum wiring in a house where its only flex is due to thermal expansion, and it has a hard enough time coping with that it's still a special category in home insurance, to say nothing of a vehicle that's going to spend the next ten-plus years bouncing over the road.
Furthermore, you basically can't modify aluminum wiring. In-line splices and solders are virtually impossible. While that's irrelevant for manufacturing, it hits the aftermarket pretty hard, including dealer mods, and of course, dealer repairs. That can be worked around but it would require communication between branches who don't normally talk, and it just adds friction to any possible aluminum migration.
I've seen aluminum in a single very-heavy-gauge battery cable for a car that put the battery in the back, with ultrasonic-welded terminals on both ends, and that's it. Everything else in that car was copper.
In sotuations where it is about space you wouldn't choose aluminum. Also afaik most automotive wiring that is certified is copper. Going from copper to aluminum means you will have to put bigger crossections in. This is more weight and more space.
What you may have saved on wiring is going to be offset by the increased cost of the battery (I'm seeing 2x-3x cost) and the fact you now need a much beefier alternator which is going to have its own cost.
You'd think if it were a slam dunk then the bean counters would have insisted on a transition to 48V years ago.
Total current consumption should be about the same (or even less, thanks to lower losses at 48v), so I'm not sure why would you would need a "much beefier" alternator. It will need different windings, but overall it should be about the same size and cost.
Once you've introduced a 48v system engineers will find ways to use that extra power. They've been spending decades carefully managing that power and making compromised. Now they won't have to. So yes, you're going to need a higher output alternator to keep the 48v battery charged due to the increased load.
Modern phones charge on 48V these days, so 48V parts are extremely common & cheap.