Assuming that the universe functions like a deterministic/stochastic machine, and that our understanding of said universe is 100% correct and complete. Except, we know for certain that our understanding of the universe isn’t 100% correct and complete. Our math and physics (which assume that the universe is a deterministic/stochastic machine) work fantastically well up to a point, then fail. Our two primary theories for physics are incompatible, so clearly there is a gap in our understanding.
Free will seems to me to be intimately tied to consciousness. Without free will, consciousness is pointless. Why be conscious if you have no choices? Yet we are conscious. Lots of things are conscious. Making conscious choices must provide evolutionary fitness value. It seems to be extremely important. And the view of the universe as a deterministic/stochastic machine has absolutely no explanation for consciousness, and it doesn’t seem like we’re getting any closer to a theory using that framework.
There are a few scientists who actually think that consciousness is a fundamental aspect of the universe. Apparently, Max Planck and some early quantum theorists thought it was. I’m not convinced yet, but I think it’s an interesting perspective, and I think it’s worth considering. But I’m definitely not convinced that there’s no free will.
The universe has a fundamental source of randomness that comes through all over the place. The universe is in no way deterministic.
But the opposite of deterministic isn't free will. It's randomness.
Programming lets you mash determinism and randomness together to arbitrary levels of depth and complexity. Yet not even the slightest hint of free will anywhere in anyone's program. Or even theoretical research into programming "free will".
In your thought experiment, you basically say, “Let’s model the universe with the assumption that there’s no free will” and use that assumption to show that there’s no free will. If you assume that the universe functions like a computer, you’ll get that result, but I need more proof to accept that the universe functions like a computer. I highly doubt that it does. If this was the seventeenth century, the argument would be that the universe functions like clockwork. That was a decent approximation at the time, but clearly not true.
I can’t say that there IS free will, but I think trying to make the determination that there isn’t with today’s level of understanding is premature. Since free will (whether real or illusory) is either an effect of consciousness or at least deeply tied to consciousness, I think we need a coherent theory of consciousness before we rule out free will. We don’t have that theory. That’s why it’s called The Hard Problem of Consciousness.
Free will seems to me to be intimately tied to consciousness. Without free will, consciousness is pointless. Why be conscious if you have no choices? Yet we are conscious. Lots of things are conscious. Making conscious choices must provide evolutionary fitness value. It seems to be extremely important. And the view of the universe as a deterministic/stochastic machine has absolutely no explanation for consciousness, and it doesn’t seem like we’re getting any closer to a theory using that framework.
There are a few scientists who actually think that consciousness is a fundamental aspect of the universe. Apparently, Max Planck and some early quantum theorists thought it was. I’m not convinced yet, but I think it’s an interesting perspective, and I think it’s worth considering. But I’m definitely not convinced that there’s no free will.