Car ownership in the US today is really high (recently was over 90% [1])
Why would 90% of people forego paying approximately $1~$5 to travel a dozen miles in their already payed for car vs paying a taxi-cab like fare for an AV? I'm not sure how much it costs to go 10 miles in an AV taxi, but I'm guessing it's $20-$30.
The effect of AVs with respect to strip malls and commercial spaces seems like it'll be a pretty low traffic flow.
Asked another way, how many people take conventional taxis (being Uber/Lyft, or a legit taxi) today to go such places? It seems like the prices are similar, why then would the lack of a human driver make an AV taxi that much more attractive (like, to the point where the 90% of car owners decided to stop driving their own car, which is far cheaper - and then this pattern plays out for long enough that the parking lot situation changes!
Nothing I described requires giving up ownership of the vehicle. All that is needed is for it to be able to navigate to and from the parking lot by itself, and to move spots when requested by the parking lot's computer.
There are sharp limits on the development you're describing. Cars still need to be parked nearby because nobody wants to have to wait for 40 minutes, or 15 minutes, for their car to come get them after they've decided they're done shopping.
If everyone keeps their private vehicle, and that is still at over 90%, why would any part of society change due to AI cars? The parent post described a situation where strip malls would be redone in the image of AI cars. I'm not sure how that happens when the future continues to be like the present with overwhelming majorities owning a personal car.
The US car fleet is also unusually old. If transit worked better, using AVs or not, it's a pretty good hypothesis that people keeping old cars on the road would find using better transit saves them money.
Why would 90% of people forego paying approximately $1~$5 to travel a dozen miles in their already payed for car vs paying a taxi-cab like fare for an AV? I'm not sure how much it costs to go 10 miles in an AV taxi, but I'm guessing it's $20-$30.
The effect of AVs with respect to strip malls and commercial spaces seems like it'll be a pretty low traffic flow.
Asked another way, how many people take conventional taxis (being Uber/Lyft, or a legit taxi) today to go such places? It seems like the prices are similar, why then would the lack of a human driver make an AV taxi that much more attractive (like, to the point where the 90% of car owners decided to stop driving their own car, which is far cheaper - and then this pattern plays out for long enough that the parking lot situation changes!
[1] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-s...