AGI slightly exceeds humans, but they are actually kind of shitty in all sorts of annoying and hard to predict ways. They turn out to be fantastic slackers and liars. Your voters, to put it mildly, don't like them. It's hard to monetize them and we all agree we should focus our efforts on something else.
AGI never exceeds humans: You lose the bet.
AGI exceeds humans, but recursive self-improvement is impossible: Authoritarian dystopia. Your winnings belong to whoever controls the AGI.
AGI exceeds humans, and recursive self-improvement is possible: Extinction of all biological life. There are no winnings.