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That's what makes prediction markets work — if you (or anyone else, for that matter) feel the market has priced the expected outcome wrong, you stand to make a fortune!

Great article on the economic theories behind it here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq



Metaculus is just forecasting without any betting

Despite that Manifold market having the most traders ever on Manifold, there's still roughly only a thousand dollars to be made on it, and the winnings can only be donated. Hardly a fortune to be made on either of those sites




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