Most of the estimates I've seen for storage requirements for current electricity usage are not optimistic[1]. When you add in the huge amount of energy used for heating, which is currently not electric, it gets even worse.
I'd like to see an analysis of how much generation and storage is required to handle Minnesota's natural gas usage[2], with a reasonable guarantee that power will not be lost for more than an hour or two during the entire yearly six month cold weather span. Are those generation & storage estimates reasonable? How much will they cost, how reliable are they, how much room will they take, how many natural resources will they consume? Keep in mind Minnesota will not be able to bogart the entire battery manufacturing capacity of the globe, and remember that this analysis is in addition to the amount required to meet current electricity usage needs. Then, extrapolate that analysis to all other cold weather areas, such as other northern US states and most of Canada. Is renewable+storage really feasible to meet that need?
I've never seen this analysis done, and what I've seen from other analyses makes me think it's not feasible without depending on unproven future tech. But I'd love to be wrong!
[2] Approximately 500 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year. Note also that the usage is not evenly distributed through the year, we use a lot more in February than we do in July. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_CONS_SUM_DCU_SMN_A.htm
The person you are quoting in [1] is a chronic bad faith actor. Examine his arguments with great skepticism. The argument he is making there is obviously wrong -- he's implying (without justification) that battery production cannot be greatly expanded, and ignores non-battery storage.
I don't agree with that characterization, but regardless, that was just a handy link. There's plenty of well-justified skepticism regarding storage out there. Either way, I'd love to see the analysis I suggested. If it's that clear-cut, surely it's not too hard for someone better informed than me to put together the numbers.
I think if you really dig into the arguments he is making, you will spot the evasions and non sequiturs, and conclude he's not arguing in good faith.
There is so much peer reviewed work saying the opposite of what he claims that you should default to skeptical about him. It's the same way one should treat a creationist.
Most of the estimates I've seen for storage requirements for current electricity usage are not optimistic[1]. When you add in the huge amount of energy used for heating, which is currently not electric, it gets even worse.
I'd like to see an analysis of how much generation and storage is required to handle Minnesota's natural gas usage[2], with a reasonable guarantee that power will not be lost for more than an hour or two during the entire yearly six month cold weather span. Are those generation & storage estimates reasonable? How much will they cost, how reliable are they, how much room will they take, how many natural resources will they consume? Keep in mind Minnesota will not be able to bogart the entire battery manufacturing capacity of the globe, and remember that this analysis is in addition to the amount required to meet current electricity usage needs. Then, extrapolate that analysis to all other cold weather areas, such as other northern US states and most of Canada. Is renewable+storage really feasible to meet that need?
I've never seen this analysis done, and what I've seen from other analyses makes me think it's not feasible without depending on unproven future tech. But I'd love to be wrong!
[1] For example, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36949165
[2] Approximately 500 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year. Note also that the usage is not evenly distributed through the year, we use a lot more in February than we do in July. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_CONS_SUM_DCU_SMN_A.htm