I'll ask you what I always ask folks who say that something will never be a thing - do you really think that 1000 years from now, cars won't be able to fully drive themselves under all conditions better than humans? As a reference for the amount of progress we can make in 1000 years, roughly that long ago, someone invented the compass.
If you can agree that in 1000 years, it's extremely likely that we'll have self-driving cars, then to paraphrase Churchill, now we're just haggling over timeline. 500 years from now, will we have self-driving cars? 500 years ago, gunpowder and windmills were new technology. How about 200 years? The big thing was steam power then.
And so forth and so on. Unless there is some natural or physical law that would prevent self-driving cars, it's just a matter of when. And honestly, if you watch some of these Tesla FSD drives that people post on Twitter, it's pretty clear that self-driving is production-ready under a significant number of circumstances.
The problem is, of course, that there are a lot of edge cases, and because the stakes are high, we have to solve most of those to get true full self driving. But given that cars can pretty reliably traverse the streets of SF, I struggle to see the argument that the remaining edge cases are impossible to solve.
> do you really think that 1000 years from now, cars won't be able to fully drive themselves under all conditions better than humans?
Ignoring the questions of if there will even be people -- let alone cars as we known them -- in 1,000 years, my answer to this is:
I have no idea. I don't see any special reason to suspect that such cars will exist in 1,000 years. I also see no special reason to suspect that they won't.
Let me rephrase the question, as folks who are answering in the negative are mostly avoiding the main point.
At any time between now and 1000 years from now, will we have the capability to build a fully self-driving car, assuming that there are no cataclysmic, apocalyptical, or other type of events that render any question of technology irrelevant?
Yes but also deeply besides the point the post you are replying to is trying to make.
His question is - can your mind wrap around the amount of progress that can happen in 1000 years? If yes, can you imagine that going from "now" to "fully automated cars" is a small amount of progress, relative to progress that's possible on 1000 years? If yes, great - now you can dial back that it probably won't take 1000 years.
The question wasn't about relevance, though; it was about technical capability. Whether or not anyone actually uses one, will the technology to make one exist? Regardless of whether they're in use in 1000 years, will one ever have existed?
There will be no need for self driving cars in 10 years, because assuming we are still around, we will have car driving humanoid robots that drive our same cars. They will fit into our driver seat, be able to reach all the controls, and when they are not driving they can take care of other stuff.
This will be the best of both worlds because we’ll still be able to drive when we want or need to (on roads where it’s allowed), and free to be driven when we prefer that, and the existing fleet of cars can age safely, preserving that investment for its useful lifetime.
If you can agree that in 1000 years, it's extremely likely that we'll have self-driving cars, then to paraphrase Churchill, now we're just haggling over timeline. 500 years from now, will we have self-driving cars? 500 years ago, gunpowder and windmills were new technology. How about 200 years? The big thing was steam power then.
And so forth and so on. Unless there is some natural or physical law that would prevent self-driving cars, it's just a matter of when. And honestly, if you watch some of these Tesla FSD drives that people post on Twitter, it's pretty clear that self-driving is production-ready under a significant number of circumstances.
The problem is, of course, that there are a lot of edge cases, and because the stakes are high, we have to solve most of those to get true full self driving. But given that cars can pretty reliably traverse the streets of SF, I struggle to see the argument that the remaining edge cases are impossible to solve.