Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

The macro challenge is that we have already overshot and the IPCC appears to be massively understating the current state. According to Hansen et. al.'s Global warming in the pipeline [under peer review], "Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade." For context, this 10°C is over the next 1500 years, but it does imply at least 4.3°C of warming by 2100.

> But if every fraction of a degree matters, shouldn't we also be at least continuing if not scaling up these albedo-increasing changes?

Humanity is running the experiment in real time with a sample size of one. Aerosol dimming is good but acid rain is bad: we have a bad vs a worse choice so someone will be harmed, thus any project has liability and the default of doing nothing happens.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 if you want some light reading.



Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: