But the question isn't "can I do better than teams of quants who do this 100 hrs/wk and are supported by institutions with effectively infinity dollars", but "can I make money on this"? If I buy NVDA at 283, will it go up? There's no guarantee it will, they could lose their edge to AMD and the GPU market could bottom out, but barring some calamity, the answer seems to be yes they well. There maybe other stocks out there that are better buys, but they're part of the SP500 for a reason.