But that's true of public transit projects too. They always promise to reduce congestion and never actually do. Congestion charging is probably the only way to really reduce congestion and in many ways the solution is worse than the problem.
And, more than not being a problem, the highway filling up immediately is actually a benefit. Because more people are able and are choosing to travel, to accomplish whatever they need and want to accomplish.
Granted, the externality costs of all that car travel are high. But that's almost a separate issue and one that we really should be solving by a better accounting of costs and additional taxes. It's a shame that won't happen.
It doesn’t reduce road congestion but it does reduce transit congestion. The Second Avenue Subway, for example, decreased loads on the parallel congested Lexington Avenue line by 11%: https://www.6sqft.com/in-just-a-month-second-avenue-subway-e.... It’s displaced 88,000 trips a day, and yet it’s not anywhere near full; a highway expansion would struggle with that amount.
Traffic speeds generally have a floor of how long the equivalent public transport journey is. (If the public transport journey is faster, people will use that instead.) The issue now is that American land use is so out of whack it’s hard to deploy transit widely enough to make that true for the majority of trips.
I think you're on to something with regards to subways in urban environments moving a number of people that a highway expansion would struggle to match. Feels to me like movement of people should be the real metric and, given that, that we should be prioritizing transit investments in places like NYC, San Francisco, and West LA (as opposed to light rail to Azusa).
Downs-Thomson Paradox is also interesting here and relates to your second paragraph. In a built out environment, transit trips and car trips will take roughly the same amount of time, door to door. Transit advocates have used that finding as a way to complain about road projects, but I think it actually is a much more interesting finding that suggests a more multi-modal approach to planning. I wonder how relevant or irrelevant it is for non-built-out environments.
In the US at least, really the complaint from transit advocates is that funding is and continues to be overwhelmingly road-centric, with a small share for transit and basically a pittance for walking and biking.
Usually the issue with suburban transit investment occurring over urban ones is that urban areas are so weak they cannot fund expansions by themselves, and if you want the suburbs to pony up they’ll get their pound of flesh
And, more than not being a problem, the highway filling up immediately is actually a benefit. Because more people are able and are choosing to travel, to accomplish whatever they need and want to accomplish.
Granted, the externality costs of all that car travel are high. But that's almost a separate issue and one that we really should be solving by a better accounting of costs and additional taxes. It's a shame that won't happen.