For deterrence it doesn't matter what the tariff (the potential sentence for a crime) is because the vast majority of criminals don't know exactly what the tariff is, so it can't deter them, the same reason that they can't be deterred by other things they don't know like the lyrics to the Shriekback song "Going Equipped" †
† Going Equipped is reference to an English crime, I don't know if Americans have it, in which it's illegal to have with you things whose purpose is to help you commit burglary or various similar offences. Prosecutors need to show that you had things which were obviously useful for these crimes (e.g. bolt cutters, a ladder), and show intent and that you weren't at home..
> deterrence it doesn't matter what the tariff (the potential sentence for a crime) is because the vast majority of criminals don't know exactly what the tariff is, so it can't deter them
This is not true. I may not know the specific punishments for some crimes. But I know they’re tough, and that has deterrence value.
The deterrence element of punishment is often overstated. Punishment is a really poor behavioral modifier. For punishment to reliably modify behavior, it has to be immediate and consistent. The criminal justice system is neither. It is not only behavioral scientists that are aware of the flaws, criminologists also look at the data, and there seems to be no indication that the severity of the punishment is negatively correlated with the frequency of the crime, neither across time, nor between jurisdictions with different penal code.
What criminologists have found however is that racial minorities are often given the harsher punishment when available (the reason WA deemed the death penalty unconstitutional back in 2018; and they had the data to back it up). So the deterrence value seems to be primarily used to discriminate against minorities, not to reduce crime rate.
> there seems to be no indication that the severity of the punishment is negatively correlated with the frequency of the crime, neither across time, nor between jurisdictions with different penal code
This is literally why I flagged the link between retribution and deterrence [1]. Retribution is the moral layer that communicates deterrence.
† Going Equipped is reference to an English crime, I don't know if Americans have it, in which it's illegal to have with you things whose purpose is to help you commit burglary or various similar offences. Prosecutors need to show that you had things which were obviously useful for these crimes (e.g. bolt cutters, a ladder), and show intent and that you weren't at home..