but it is not pulled out of thin air, they list a bunch of case studies in TFA. If you don't like their numbers/stories, here is a recent quote from the World Bank on Nigeria:
> This, it said, translates into growth per capita of 0.2 per cent in 2023 and 0.4 per cent in 2024–25, which is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty in the country.
that country grows by a Rwanda every couple of years. Sure it will probably slow down the population growth by mid- or end of this century. But the economy is not keeping up for them to get out of poverty.
That’s really a Nigeria problem, tho, not the entire continent. Nigeria has stumbled the last few years, most other African nations have not.
The argument is based on cherry-picking arguments like that. Overall, Africa is quite rapidly developing. Not as fast as we would like, but the overall narrative of the article is cherry-picked nonsense not consistent with reality. Subsaharan Africa overall has grown in per capita gdp by about 2x since 2000. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat...
In fact, I’m even more confident that birthrate will fall to near replacement in 50 years than I am about development, but even if just the birthrate drops, the improved dependency ratio will just about automatically increase the per capita gdp. Africa currently has roughly twice the number of dependents-per-worker as east Asia, for instance. (Or did in 2010), and a reducing fertility rate will mechanistically improve that dramatically. That alone is good for like a 50-100% increase in per capita gdp, let alone the compounding effects of a beneficial dependency ratio.
> This, it said, translates into growth per capita of 0.2 per cent in 2023 and 0.4 per cent in 2024–25, which is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty in the country.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/592952...
that country grows by a Rwanda every couple of years. Sure it will probably slow down the population growth by mid- or end of this century. But the economy is not keeping up for them to get out of poverty.