just sayin': why did inflation appear when it did? why not sooner? why not later? Why is the impact of inflation non-uniform?
We know the model pretty well: "money printer goes brrr" leads to higher prices for good and services. But the data lately doesn't make a great supporting case.
> I look forward to open source ai economic simulation tools - when you change variables like m2, you'll see what happens to inflation - and there'll be no more ambiguity
Economists have been leading the way in multifactor causal inference, but GPT in particular is not well suited to it. And macroeconomics in particular is hard to measure via natural experiment, so you're left trying to estimate counterfactuals based on a paucity of data
but look, my day job is people coming to me with timeseries data showing an engineering fuckup and debating about what caused it (usually ops vs prod). if theres a nuanced take, im all ears, but so far your fire has brought more heat than light.
We know the model pretty well: "money printer goes brrr" leads to higher prices for good and services. But the data lately doesn't make a great supporting case.
> I look forward to open source ai economic simulation tools - when you change variables like m2, you'll see what happens to inflation - and there'll be no more ambiguity
Economists have been leading the way in multifactor causal inference, but GPT in particular is not well suited to it. And macroeconomics in particular is hard to measure via natural experiment, so you're left trying to estimate counterfactuals based on a paucity of data
but look, my day job is people coming to me with timeseries data showing an engineering fuckup and debating about what caused it (usually ops vs prod). if theres a nuanced take, im all ears, but so far your fire has brought more heat than light.