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It’s possible, but since we don’t have the counterfactual, it’s probably more accurate to say that another precipitating event could have occurred to lead us to approximately a similar situation. However, because responses vary so much, even due to randomness, it’s hard to predict the results.

If a different 9/11 had happened - say the perpetrators were Russian - I would agree that a similarly large change in society would have occurred. We probably would have done the same crap with the TSA. However, it’s less likely that the US would have invaded Afghanistan, and possibly Iraq (because every hypothetical is less likely than the 100% probability we have now).

Just because something else would have happened doesn’t mean the response would be anywhere near similar.




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