Too many people are making assumptions that governments are giant monocultures that have all departments rowing in the same direction and don’t have some actors with perverse incentives. Nobody in any large organization would realistically make these assumptions.
My take on the war stems from a few facts that I now assume are true:
- RU has publicly stated multiple conflicting reasons for invading UA.
- RU doesn’t incentivize honest and open discussion about intelligence, risks, readiness, etc so intelligence analysts are probably scared to speak truth to their bosses. I remember reading a FB post son after the invasion that claimed an FSB/GRU analyst said as much in a Telegram channel (obviously unverifiable).
- RU’s capabilities have atrophied and are hampered by corruption of their military / industry
- RU isn’t a healthy society; it is largely dominated by wealthy energy magnates (and the politicians/military that enable them)
It’s possible, but not guaranteed that a nation state destroyed the pipeline. I’m curious what the possibilities are about an energy company that rivals Gazprom could/would destroy a rival’s distribution channel. Gazprom was already running those lines below capacity because of “turbine maintenance” issues.
That only complaint I have with your comment is the last sentence. It’s possible that none of the popular narratives are correct.
Too many people are making assumptions that governments are giant monocultures that have all departments rowing in the same direction and don’t have some actors with perverse incentives. Nobody in any large organization would realistically make these assumptions.
My take on the war stems from a few facts that I now assume are true:
- RU has publicly stated multiple conflicting reasons for invading UA.
- RU doesn’t incentivize honest and open discussion about intelligence, risks, readiness, etc so intelligence analysts are probably scared to speak truth to their bosses. I remember reading a FB post son after the invasion that claimed an FSB/GRU analyst said as much in a Telegram channel (obviously unverifiable).
- RU’s capabilities have atrophied and are hampered by corruption of their military / industry
- RU isn’t a healthy society; it is largely dominated by wealthy energy magnates (and the politicians/military that enable them)
It’s possible, but not guaranteed that a nation state destroyed the pipeline. I’m curious what the possibilities are about an energy company that rivals Gazprom could/would destroy a rival’s distribution channel. Gazprom was already running those lines below capacity because of “turbine maintenance” issues.
That only complaint I have with your comment is the last sentence. It’s possible that none of the popular narratives are correct.