That is the strongest case, but I'm still confused by the seemingly conflicting claim that Putin is susceptible to a coup but only if there's a pipeline. Don't Russian elites have nearly as much to lose from this war continuing with or without a pipeline?
What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup?
The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.
Why would you interpret that motive as "only" if there's a pipeline?
Think of a car seat belt: does it make you immune to dying in a car crash? No. It does however reduce the probability you will. So might removing a bunch of spikes glued to your steering wheel.
Similarly, what do you think a coup is? A coup is when guns get pulled in board rooms and people have to try and remove blood and bodies from the carpet. It's safe to say "the elites" don't plan one idly, and you know, if the stunning rate of Russian executives turning up having committed suicide off balcony's[1] is any indication, one real good way not be one of them is to rat out the people coming to you proposing a coup. Particularly if they're not able to promise big money in return.
> In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces.
> In a press statement, the firm said: “Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorised gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system.”
---
From a layperson trying to channel Russian leadership, removing Nord stream would mean that the only way for Western Europe to get natural gas is through stability in Ukraine and an easing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russian leadership obviously has their preferred way of accomplishing this.
My crystal ball also says that even after the war ends in the favor of Ukraine, that gas pipeline will not be available because of the tensions and the... lets call it "unreliable partnership" that exists ( https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... )
> On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both countries had rejected Russia's demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles - a demand allegedly constituting breach of contract.
Without the Nord Stream, Yamal, Soyuz/Brotherhood; Southern Europe (Greece, Romania, Italy) are being tempted with gas supplies from Russia by way of Turkey. Russia is additionally trying to tempt Turkey into being its energy hub ( https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-ca... ) with promises of cheap gas, free money (transit fees for the pipeline), and a dependence on Russia for that part of the economy.
What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup?
The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.