I think Paul's advice in that post is best accompanied by reading Thinking Fast and Slow. There is a big difference between knowing something in theory and being able to actually practice it skilfully, and self-assessment in such things is always questionable.

Exactly. The most common US-culprit "evidence" brought up is Biden saying "we're going to put an end to Nordstream 2" on the eve of the Russian invasion, which happened immediately; no gas through Nordstream 2. Then there's no evidence in Hersh's piece, based on one anonymous source and a litany of outright fabrications (Jens Stoltenberg being "supreme commander of NATO", Norwegians hating russians??, P-8 not in Norwegian Navy service). On the other hand, there's no direct evidence of Russian involvement, only a history of bold-faced lying to us and blowing up their own pipeline.

This realm is still in the land of almost zero evidence hearsay, and we just do not know yet.