This has already happened. The walls have already been torn down. The EU's Digital Markets Act has made it mandatory for Apple to implement those changes by Q1 2024
Anyone care to speculate as to whether Apple will take that opportunity to permit users in other regions that same liberty? Personally, I would not bet on that outcome without similar legislation forcing the issue.
No chance of Apple implementing this outside of the EU if they are not forced to.
They are getting billions from Google every year because Safari is the most used browser on iOS, and they will do what is necessary to make this last for as long as possible.
I can see how that applies for hardware manufacturers that don't want to build multiple versions of their products; however, software can easily be region locked using a simple flag without the same economic consequences.
Most people don’t give a shit about 3rd party app stores. I doubt 90% of iPhone users even know this is happening. (I say this as an iPhone user myself). So, I’m not sure negative PR is that much of a motivator.