I heard U.S. officials say that it's definitely a spy-balloon. They refused to say how they know this, but I assume they have their sources.

But a balloon has to intrude in someone's airspace. Doing so could trip off an international incident, like it has now.

Yes, it is definitely a silly move if it's really a spy balloon.

But I think it's still too early to draw the conclusion, given the strong Bayesian prior that how unlikely it is for China, with advanced spy satellites and a spy network in the US as accused by three-letter-agencies, to fly a huge, visible by naked-eye, balloon for spying and for starting an international incident.

According to the WSJ article I read today, it is indeed a spy balloon.

Well, then this time CPC certainly did a bad job unless they already got some valuable data.

They already said it was a mistake and unintentional.

But hey, they're the enemy to the USA right, so of course you'd believe everything they do is intentional and intended for subversion.