This is how I'm thinking about it. If I save an hour a week, will I really clock out at 4PM on Friday and say "in the counterfactual world without ChatGPT, I would still be working, so I'm free to clock out now". No, probably not. Will I work on another task for extra hour to productivity-maxx? Also, probably not. Probably the rest of my tasks will magically expand to fill that time. Or I will spend it fiddling around with something else of dubious value. There's a whole psychological element to it. If I was a perfect min/max-er and allocated my time perfectly based on ROI, I would probably already be a millionaire by some other means.
And it's good to keep in mind, the comparison is not $20 for ChatGPT versus nothing. It's $20 for ChatGPT Plus, versus my API-hacky-solution for $2, versus ChatGPT free, for $0.
No, and it's a bit frustrating when several people explain in great detail the components of a programming day and how they combine and what the combination tendency is and then someone comes back with the same "but mah productivity". It's also typical for a certain mindset, of course.
Anyway, a counter-example is that the arguments above would not be against some broad framework that reduces both the thinking and the writing needed to construct programs - say a combination of a good programming, a good software engineering framework and a management that forced client requirements into a structured format. That sort of thing can reduce the needed programmer activity in a project on both the low and the high level and none of the arguments above object to this.
And it's good to keep in mind, the comparison is not $20 for ChatGPT versus nothing. It's $20 for ChatGPT Plus, versus my API-hacky-solution for $2, versus ChatGPT free, for $0.