First, please repeat the standard mantra: past performance is no guarantee of future success.
Then tell me the 95th percentile and the median geometric returns based of fixed periods (say, copy the 20 years.)
Let us also grab what an inflation linked gov bond would have given over those same periods. Classically I would always think of pension returns as vs the risk free rate (heh, us gov credit risk) which is essentially an IL bond.
Then repeat the analysis on, say, the G8 or G20 countries. Oh, and lets do a variety of stock indexes as well. I am a great believer in diversification - so betting on the US is not my standard behaviour.
6.9% assumed return is mad for any individual. It would be mad for a DB scheme _and they at least have some risk pooling in their favour_.
But. I am hella risk averse and see the world through that lens.
Then tell me the 95th percentile and the median geometric returns based of fixed periods (say, copy the 20 years.)
Let us also grab what an inflation linked gov bond would have given over those same periods. Classically I would always think of pension returns as vs the risk free rate (heh, us gov credit risk) which is essentially an IL bond.
Then repeat the analysis on, say, the G8 or G20 countries. Oh, and lets do a variety of stock indexes as well. I am a great believer in diversification - so betting on the US is not my standard behaviour.
6.9% assumed return is mad for any individual. It would be mad for a DB scheme _and they at least have some risk pooling in their favour_.
But. I am hella risk averse and see the world through that lens.