Of course it's not just a lottery, it's a lottery weighted (at least to some degree) by a variety of factors like the game itself and the marketing you put into it.
The point I think people usually mean to make is that the odds are low (really, extremely low) so it's not really a prudent financial choice unless you have other ways to support yourself and don't care about potentially throwing away the time/effort if it doesn't work out.
Marketing definitely has an impact, even just social media stuff, but unless you've got a AAA-sized marketing budget there will still be a significant amount of chance involved
Marketing matters more than the game if you're an indie, and I don't say that in a cynical way.
Unfortunately I've seen so many people pour their hearts and souls into a game thinking they can just start marketing it when it's ready: You should be engaging with your future audience well before then.
You don't have to take money from them, you don't have to make empty promises, but in the current landscape you need people to be waiting for your game, not you waiting for players, because odds are they won't come.
For every lucky game that gets the right streamer there's 10 more that are truly great games that just never get traction and die.
