I have steadily become convinced that we should make a multi-billion year backup of all of humanity's knowledge. All of it.
Something that,
- is resilient (can survive a nuclear explosion)
- requires no power
- doesn't require software to read/reboot from
- (theoretically) lasts for at least 1 billion years
Copying from the Long Now Foundation's projects, I think we can achieve these goals by miniaturizing pages and etching them on some metallic surface (a titanium alloy), depositing a layer of some resilient transparent material onto this surface, and creating multiple copies.
A few copies for Earth. 2 or 3 for the Moon. And a few sent out of the solar system on probes like Voyager.
Voyager itself is a great example of what we could achieve. The golden records were made out of stable, inert materials and Voyager’s trajectory doesn’t intersect with any known object for billions of years. The records themselves will be intact for at least two billion years according to one estimate. They are, for all intents and purposes, functionally immortal parcels of information.
Some simple math, if the pages could fit inside of a 10mm x 10mm square, then for a plate that's about the size of an average coffee table at 2' x 4', we could fit 7,432 pages.
Assuming that we have 50 billion pages, we'd need about 6.7 million such plates to fit all of human knowledge, so far.
It sounds crazy, but assuming we could get net costs per plate down to $500, each copy would be about $35M. Or, ~0.14% of an Uber. Alternatively, 0.002% of the F-35 program.
That's doable!
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6.7 million plates will probably weigh a lot. So off-world copies might need to use an alternative encoding scheme.
Another problem is likely to be organization of the plates/copies. The hardest part might be putting it all together in a way that can be trivially decoded by human descendants, even if they don't speak our language or share our subspecies.
(apologies for any typos, it's very late at my end)
I think what you consider the hardest part, putting it together so that someone who does not speak any human language today deciphers it, is actually one of the least of your problems. Unless you deliberately encrypt the information (which you wouldn’t), I have a feeling that even Wikipedia alone might be sufficient for a motivated civilization to figure it out. Linguists and archeologists in our time have to do with far, far less, and they have reasonable success. Add in a few things like dictionaries, textbook, novels, and I have little doubt that it’s a big obstacle.
Rather I think you vastly underestimate what a billion years can do. The earth itself, and all that was on it, was formed a “few” billion years ago.
Our rivers alone have carved entire valleys into mountain ranges in much, much less time. I doubt a titanium alloy and some unspecified sort of super epoxy stand a chance.
And constant custody with regular restoration cannot be guaranteed for billions of years either.
That’s a massive problem for one plate (and its many copies) alone, more so for millions of unique plates…
The Long Now Foundation is only shooting for 10000 years, as far as I know.
Off world would help, no atmosphere on the moon for instance makes for less deterioration, and a cave system would shield it from radiation.
On earth clay tablets have done a great job : we have tablets 6000 years old, so we know that works. That’s 60% of 10k already. Titanium seems expensive and might be melted down in time of need, like bronze has been often in the past. Clay tablets survived partly because it’s a ‘worthless’ material.
When there's a lot of things to start with, there's bound to be a lot of things to survive by chance even without preserving. A lot of the stuff that survived was accidentally preserved by nature.
You could say that, but I would point out to its resilience and suitability as a medium for long term information containment. Literally thousands upon thousands have been found. Imagine if one were to try make it last longer :)
A multi-billion year backup is probably pointless.
The earth will be uninhabitable in that time frame due to changes in the atmosphere and beyond that the sun itself will complete it's lifecycle.
I know there's a big fad to "just believe" in a SF future that spans space and time but physical realities in this area are pretty rough.
I think the best thing people could do is realise that, eventually, everything ends and believing otherwise when it comes to the human race is much like believing in an afterlife.
Our survival is not the point. It is an act of hope and the manifestation of our goodwill to the rest of the universe. There is nothing more valuable that we can offer to the Universe than our culture, history, knowledge, and the Earth's biological data.
Imagine if you were an alien species who somehow comes across this capsule hundreds of millions or billions of years from now. It's proof of sentient life elsewhere! But then you date the U-238 and realize that they're probably all dead...
But, they've left all of their civilization, culture, heritage, and knowledge behind. And you get to experience that, even recreate a tiny simulacrum of their world. And it gives you something, it's a tangible form of communication and cooperation across aeons.
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In the short term, the backup is probably useful to have. Imagine if a collection is lost to fire or some other catastrophe, and one of the closer ones could be used to bring it back. Case in point, the fire at Notre-Dame. In 2015, Dr. Andrew Tallon, an art historian, painstakingly scanned all of Notre Dame, https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/04/16/we-have-b...
I think it's important to be honest. Would you have flagged his work as pointless in 2015? After all, the Cathedral has stood for centuries, been photographed so many times, what's the point of a 3D scan?
After 2019's fire, those scans became important (unsure to what degree) to the restoration effort. At some level, by capturing and preserving history, Andrew Tallon helped save history. And now it becomes a part of the story.
That's the goal. To engage in an act of optimism for the betterment of us and all of humanity.
Doomer fatalism is nearly as dumb as sci-fi optimism. It's 100% physically plausible, using technology we have today, to make humanity star-faring. The costs would be exorbitant at this point, but within the reach of human productive capacity (assuming we're willing to ditch the partial nuclear test ban).
Getting to the moon only takes another JFK. We have the tech, we have the people, all we lack is the budget and a 5-10 year deadline. Also, another hard part is getting there safely enough. A 5% chance of dying out there is probably not acceptable nowadays. We probably need to go below 0.1% to attempt it again, and that's not trivial, especially with the possibility of solar flares beyond the magnetic protection of the Earth.
The real question is, is it worth making it a priority?
> 6.7 million plates will probably weigh a lot. So off-world copies might need to use an alternative encoding scheme.
For the Moon and Mars, carve them into stone there. You'll have to defend against meteor strikes so they'll be carved and stored deep underground. No idea about seismic activity on those bodies.
For outer space, maybe it's pointless because finding, boarding, unloading an interstellar probe and sending the cargo back home is not easy unless you have very advanced interstellar ships. An orbit around the sun could be an easier place to spot. The Library of Ceres or the Library of the Troians?
But of course you need some marker then on the ground so people know where to look for it later if they want to read the data. Maybe some artwork? A giant monolith perhaps?
I'd start with the pyramid, but there's a risk of trying to dig up a regular mountain, which would be very wasteful. Maybe we should dig instead the Face of Mars after all, but who knows what other alien faces are there that we can't recognize? Let's dig everywhere!
Oops! I did a rough calc in my head but forgot to add in the two zeros. But it's still fairly "cheap." 0.14 Ubers (14%), or 0.002 Pentagon Monetary Black Holes (0.2% of the F-35 program)
In the next few hundred years it's pretty likely that gold price will be marginal, as asteroid miners looking for less useless materials such as nickel, cobalt and platinum mine an excess.
So no, unless for some hidden reason asteroid mining doesn't work out, which is pretty unlikely given how badly the developed world needs that material.
> The hardest part might be putting it all together in a way that can be trivially decoded by human descendants, even if they don't speak our language or share our subspecies.
Though other crystals should be highly stable. Quartz seems geologically and chemically stable, plain old glass ain't bad. Something reasonably cheap is probably preferable, both from the cost basis (an expensive-to-create archive is a challenge) and the repurposing challenge (a diamond-etched bibliographic archive might have other appeals to those who chance across it).
Even parchment proved sufficiently valuable that works were often repurposed (and lost) through palimpsests.
https://archmission.org is doing something like this. It's a super cool project, and they work with the Long Now Foundation, the Internet Archive, etc.
5d is a bit dramatic but it is a femtosecond laser writing of quartz crystal that should, in theory, be stable for billions of years and can hold hundreds of terabytes.
This size will have microscopic features! There is probably a balance between ease of scanning/technological sophistication required to see the pages, cost of etching, and the number of plates overall.
The Long Now Foundation has extensively studied the language loss problem and arrived at a fairly elegant set of solutions.
You'd want to select it special to be non-reactive, and even then limit or eliminate exposure to UV, oxygen, and temperature changes. Stone is also a changing material on this time scale and I think storage preference would largely be the same. I think one of the more salient differences is feature size; easier to make very small yet still legible images in metal than in stone.
I have steadily become convinced that we should make a multi-billion year backup of all of humanity's knowledge. All of it.
Something that,
Copying from the Long Now Foundation's projects, I think we can achieve these goals by miniaturizing pages and etching them on some metallic surface (a titanium alloy), depositing a layer of some resilient transparent material onto this surface, and creating multiple copies.A few copies for Earth. 2 or 3 for the Moon. And a few sent out of the solar system on probes like Voyager.
Voyager itself is a great example of what we could achieve. The golden records were made out of stable, inert materials and Voyager’s trajectory doesn’t intersect with any known object for billions of years. The records themselves will be intact for at least two billion years according to one estimate. They are, for all intents and purposes, functionally immortal parcels of information.
https://www.space.com/predicting-voyager-golden-records-dist...
Some simple math, if the pages could fit inside of a 10mm x 10mm square, then for a plate that's about the size of an average coffee table at 2' x 4', we could fit 7,432 pages.
Assuming that we have 50 billion pages, we'd need about 6.7 million such plates to fit all of human knowledge, so far.
It sounds crazy, but assuming we could get net costs per plate down to $500, each copy would be about $35M. Or, ~0.14% of an Uber. Alternatively, 0.002% of the F-35 program.
That's doable!
-
6.7 million plates will probably weigh a lot. So off-world copies might need to use an alternative encoding scheme.
Another problem is likely to be organization of the plates/copies. The hardest part might be putting it all together in a way that can be trivially decoded by human descendants, even if they don't speak our language or share our subspecies.
(apologies for any typos, it's very late at my end)