One thing that i think hits Stripe harder than most is all the people who quit their jobs to do their own thing. You know they all setup Stripe accounts for e-com and other invoice/payment functionality. I think reality is pushing them back to regular day jobs and those new Stripe accounts are going to sit with zero transactions.
The blog post literally says Stripe has higher transaction volume than ever.
Anecdotally my indie friends all report modest revenue growth this year while my big tech friends report more work for less money (due to equity grants decline).
From the data I see, the “reality” is not the failed indie dev but the failed inefficient big tech company.