The alternative, admitting it was obvious to everyone paying attention, would point the finger at the responsible parties (everywhere) who either initiated it, sustained it, or profited from it. Which is a great many people in the financial industry.
Why self flaggate when you can pretend it was a surprise instead?
Exactly. For me, this article trending on HN is a pretty good signal that the bags have finally been passed, and the "keeping buying" narrative is no longer necessary or lucrative.
Yup. I imagine most of the key stakeholder/editorial approvers have already taken up some kind of short position, or at least exited any of their positions that require an up and to the right trajectory quite awhile ago.
I genuinely don't get this. Everyone older than 30 or so saw the writing on the wall... hey, this is 2006-2008 all over again.
Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me. It's like CNN telling us to stick a fork in a light socket, their experts are sure it won't shock us this time.
> Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me.
I think it was here on HN I first saw the expression "Pessimists get the benefit of being right, optimists get the benefit of being rich."
I generally consider myself a pessimist (well I think I'm realist...) but I somewhat agree with this logic.
What really happens is that (especially) institutions have to make money today. If you're in a bubble, and know you're in a bubble, philosophically it is quite correct to point out that everything around is is built on shaking foundations and will collapse. It can be maddening to see others not understand this.
But if you're the one in change of a fund, and we're in a bubble, you can't simply not participate because their is still money on the table and your job is to grab it while you can.
It doesn't benefit financial institutions to see bubbles or question fundamentals because it may make you hesitate when you should be focused on getting that next increase.
Agreed. Even though I am way too young to have owned a house in 2006, I don't forget the stories from others about how they bought a condo for $90,000 in 2000 and turned downed an offer of $200,000 or more in late 2005.
There are many forces and policies that control housing prices in the US but one thing is obvious: it's subject to insane booms and busts.
It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing.
They have no respect for you or your intelligence and they want you to feel scared. The goal of propaganda is not to convert you to anything it is simply to convince you that you are alone, so that you won't have the courage to point out the emporer is wearing no clothes.
> It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing.
Who is "they" here? Because this is a very strange timeline/explanation of inflation and bears very little resemblance to what people who matter were actually saying.
The only part that Central banks really got wrong was that inflation that was originally driven by pandemic driven supply chain issues would be transitory. And they openly admitted they were wrong and course corrected very rapidly.
The immortal Mesopotamian space lizards obviously.
I love the part of the game where we all pretend then that we didn't actually see what we saw and that the reality we saw wasn't real.
Like when everyone said that "no one ever said masks are ineffective", or "the vaccine will be the end of the pandemic " my personal favorite was "2 weeks to slow the grow", the only one better than that was "when we said Russia hacked the election we only ever meant that people in Russia also supported Donald Trump we never meant anything ridiculous by that".
Although who can forget the iconic "firey but mostly peaceful protests" that consumed large swathes of America.
Please, link to a paper of record that said the 2016 accusations were related to actual hacking of machines.
Violence in 2020 protests was limited to several cities but people who live in BFE saw Jesse Watters tell them about the end of the empire.
CDC recommended against masks early on and I resent that for it being incorrect info even if they were doing it for a net good. But also because it gives conspiracy theorist lie-mongers oxygen.
Yeah, it's hard to call Trump a nutter when it turns out his attitude about people being out to get him isn't completely unfounded. The entire Russian Hoax is a good example of that.
oh look, someone did a bit of googling and realized what I said was true.
Then they try to imply that it's weird to expect people to understand the Russia link to Trump without some official title.
inb4 they claim I just changed the word "Hoax" to "Narrative" to hide that I'm a Trump Supporter! (I'm not), therefore I'm racist, sexist, and all other kinds of ist's and I'm going to hell! As a minority!
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It's been discredited, and it was done under the Biden Administration.
So we know Trump dealt with this most of his presidency (arguably all of it) and we know it's turned out to be manufactured, yet somehow it absolutely cannot be true that he feels as if people are coming after him unfairly?
This is everything that's wrong with current US politics.
The persecution complex is real. You still haven't actually linked to anything, you still haven't responded to the link above with cited misbehaviors of the Trump administration regarding Russian links, and you set up enough strawmen to fill a Halloween corn maze.
It's odd how even straight up telling someone you don't support Trump won't prevent them from trying various tactics to imply you're part of the group that should be summarily dismissed.
And why? Because I pointed out things everyone knows to be true. You haven't straight up said it's untrue because even you know it's true.
But Trump! right?
I saw a youtube video yesterday where someone was banned for making a joke about gassing Ben Shapiro. The person who got banned for making the statement claimed the right-wing WHITE SUPREMACISTS were the ones who got upset. Really? A white supremacist got upset at a joke about gassing a jew?
in 20 years will I still be getting accused of being a Trump Supporter for saying things that are known to be true?
Who knows, but you are everything that's wrong with US Politics right now.
Because in "downturns" the wealthy accumulate more wealth. Since there is still stuff they don't own yet, it's time to have another downturn. Just a small/short one though, as they don't want to be too greedy. That's just rude.
"the timing" is the only thing to talk about; saying "The economy will, at some point in the future, contract." is not in any way an interesting statement.
So yeah, when they say "it's a story few could have foreseen" they are definitely talking about the timing.
Isn't it kind of the entire point of raising the interest rate? How could they say nobody saw this coming. The people in charge of fiscal policy literally said "we are going to do this"
All time high prices and rising interest rates for new loans should tell everything. If you have even basic understanding how average people are estimated for their capacity of taking loans.
It's been a while since I've read a sentence that ignorant in financial news. Everyone saw this coming - we all just disagreed on the timing.