If we had a magic button that replaced all gasoline cars with electric cars in the USA this moment, the power grids would basically explode from the additional load from everyone charging them, in all 50 states.
We're DECADES away from having enough power generation and delivery to get everyone on electric cars, and that's not even considering the "How the F is everyone going to afford to buy electric cars in the first place?" problem. Look at the lines to charge EVs in states like California already, and that's with ~5% of new car sales being EVs. Multiple that by a factor of 20 and just laugh.
Every state that has passed "We're going to ban the sale of gasoline cars after 20xx" is going to have to repeal it in shame, or just force their residents to drive to the nearest red state when they want to buy a new car.
This is not numerical or factual, yet people seem to uncritical repeat this claim all the time. Can you say why you are repeating this? Did it hear it from a source you trust? (If so, you should probably stop trusting that source right not.)
EVs are fantastically more efficient than ICE vehicles, like 4-5x as efficient in terms of amount of energy needed for the same miles travelled. Our ICE engines are so primitive that it's really kind of embarrassing, honestly.
If every car switched to an EV over night, that would only increase power consumption 30%-50%, depending on the state. And it turns out that there's way more spare capacity than that in the grid, because the grid is sized for peak consumption, not average consumption. So there's plenty of extra grid and generation capacity, especially at night time, which is why night time electricity is so cheap.
But we are not going to switch to EVs in an instant, we are going to gradually switch over. The biggest change will be that after a long period of stalled or falling electricity demand, it will slightly increase. But it will be extremely flexible demand, which will make it far easier to power the grid. Car charging is a huuuuuge boom to the grid because of this massive load that will be made very flexible.
Your magic button scenario is completely irrelevant; even if gasoline cars stop being sold in 2030-2035, it will take decades for existing ICE cars to come off the road, particularly ones being used in situations where ICE cars make the most sense practically or economically.
This sort of pointless hyperbole, especially when injected with needless partisan politics trying to "gotcha" progressive states, doesn't help anything or anyone.
> Look at the lines to charge EVs in states like California already
Those lines you're referring to are for Teslas, which use proprietary charge connectors and a charging technology which is now behind industry standards in terms of charge speed.
Fast charge stations aren't necessary for most usage. If you have a 20 mile round trip commute and your car spends 10 hours in your driveway or garage, charging at 500W off a normal extension cord is sufficient to replenish the electricity used via your commute.
We are less than a decade away from triggering lynchpin mechanisms that will completely transform the world, and force half of humanity to either emigrate or die.
If you believe that it will take longer to have enough electricity for everyone to drive an electric car, I’m worried that the adjustment variable is not going to be what portions of cars are electric (what you have in mind), or what portion of the population uses a car (where I think we can make the fastest progress) but what’s the size of the population.
However, if less than half of the population of a country dies (which seems likely in the US, for instance, although not by a lot) then it means it’s a favoured country compared to areas that would have become inhabitable. Immigration to that country will explode. I’m not sure how the population will continue to decrease given that pressure, but it will have to.
We're DECADES away from having enough power generation and delivery to get everyone on electric cars, and that's not even considering the "How the F is everyone going to afford to buy electric cars in the first place?" problem. Look at the lines to charge EVs in states like California already, and that's with ~5% of new car sales being EVs. Multiple that by a factor of 20 and just laugh.
Every state that has passed "We're going to ban the sale of gasoline cars after 20xx" is going to have to repeal it in shame, or just force their residents to drive to the nearest red state when they want to buy a new car.