>There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.
Well, 2 things:
1. An animal could be the source of the virus which could be leaked from a lab. Even with the lab leak hypothesis an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step.
2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement. COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market.
> … no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement…
"So you simply cannot prove general claims that are negative claims -- one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist; one cannot prove that leprechauns too do not exist. One simply cannot prove a negative and general claim."
Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab (eg outside Wuhan) would disprove lab leak
Finding the animal reservoir, would disprove it was modified in the lab. I guess it would also lower the chance of a lab leak (though I could still be natural)
China allowing a proper investigation would reduce the odds (though how to prove they haven't tampered with evidence in the years since)
I think every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds of an unnatural one
Might someone still claim — transferred without infection beyond the lab?
Given the available evidence how would "Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab" be done?
> Finding the animal reservoir…
In bats? In intermediary animals?
Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either."
So even "a proper investigation" will be insufficient.
> … every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds…
Hardly. Let's make a wild ass guess that vastly more resources are being focused on the next Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL game, than on finding "the natural source".
What if "the natural source" was destroyed as part of the tear-down of that particular live animal trade?
China has vast resources and every reason to try and track down the natural source.
But yes, you're right, it's possible we can never know. And thus we should act upon the probability distribution of the cause behind millions of deaths, and try and improve the safety of both wet markets and labs.
? "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a zoonotic virus—one that spilled over from another species to infect and transmit among humans. … Sequencing has subsequently shown that mink-to-human transmission also occurred."
"Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the coronavirus."
Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either."
Not sure why I have to spell it out: Finding COVID in animals in the Huanan market and tracing them back to a wild population infected with COVID would be a knock down argument against a lab leak.
Spelling it out avoids unnecessary misunderstanding, thank you.
Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either."
otoh "Multiple positive samples were taken from one stall known to have sold live mammals, and the water drain proximal to this stall, as well as other sewerages and a nearby wildlife stall on the southwest side of the market, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
Well, 2 things:
1. An animal could be the source of the virus which could be leaked from a lab. Even with the lab leak hypothesis an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step.
2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement. COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market.