> The existence of people who could be blamed is not an argument towards the crime happened
I support neither treating an accidental leak (if it occurred) as a crime, nor blaming any individual for it.
That aside, the key is not quite “existence of people who could be blamed” but “existence of people who stand to (or think they stand to) lose a lot in terms of image/power/funding and have a certain degree of influence over the outcome”.
(Before you ask why am I not blaming Bill Gates for this pandemic then, there are of course other considerations that go into weighing priors. Using only this factor alone makes it indistinguishable from conspiracy theorising.)
I support neither treating an accidental leak (if it occurred) as a crime, nor blaming any individual for it.
That aside, the key is not quite “existence of people who could be blamed” but “existence of people who stand to (or think they stand to) lose a lot in terms of image/power/funding and have a certain degree of influence over the outcome”.
(Before you ask why am I not blaming Bill Gates for this pandemic then, there are of course other considerations that go into weighing priors. Using only this factor alone makes it indistinguishable from conspiracy theorising.)