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This is misleading.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-tra...

If you look at this, yes, no deaths are shown for the date of Near's death. But if you actually pay attention, no deaths are shown anywhere past May 2021.

On and before May 2021, the death rate is about one per month. It's pretty much impossible that just by chance there would be seven consecutive months with no deaths; the reasonable conclusion is that the death listings are not in fact complete and that anyone who died after May 2021 just isn't listed.



> On and before May 2021, the death rate is about one per month. It's pretty much impossible that just by chance there would be seven consecutive months with no deaths

That's possible, but it's worth pointing out that only unnatural deaths are cataloged. This does not include deaths by a natural cause.


The one per month rate that I'm comparing it to is the previous months of the same list, and also includes only unnatural deaths.


It is difficult to die unnaturally in Japan, and given the small number of US Citizens living there, it is certainly possible to have long periods of no unnatural death.


By that reasoning there shouldn't be a death per month in the previous years. But there was. Going from that to nothing is a drastic change and rather improbable.


Correlation does not equal causation.




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