Also note that “half of all new cars sold” does not mean half of all vehicles on the road. People will keep using their ICE cars for 10-20 years after their manufacture date. I’m curious to see the actual projections of cars on the road that are electric vs ICE. My guess is, by 2040, it might be 25% (in the USA).
About 1/4 of cars on the road globally will be electric but Europe and China will have a larger share than USA. Still, that means something like 25% of gas stations and parking lots worldwide having fast chargers. If they can't make that number, imagine the impact on driving when 1/4 of drivers are frustrated and their trips unrealistic. Passenger car ownership itself may fall, which would both hit the auto industry and bolster mass transit companies. But at the same time demand would be surging for ICE vehicles / infrastructure and gas prices will probably rise due to their devestment in anticipation of the EV revolution.
... or charging infrastructure companies would simply expand their offerings to meet demand, since expansion for them is comparatively cheap.
That, at least to me, seems to be the more likely scenario.
Also keep in mind that fueling behavior for EV owners is different than for ICE vehicle owners. Fast chargers are useful for road trips, but unnecessary and expensive for day-to-day driving. Most commuters will simply charge at home/work/the store/etc, where the raw inputs to charging infrastructure (car-adjacent space and electricity) are already in place and slower, cheaper charging is sufficient.
This requires having expensive, redundant charging infrastructure at all these places. It works today because far less than 1% of cars on the road in most of the developed world are electric. If 25% were electric, that free charging at the store and work is going away, there won't be enough bays to charge all the cars.
Whenever I hear 'X company is going all electric by Y date' I assume it's either an outright marketing lie, or that company will soon thereafter be out of business.
Another way to look at it: A ton of gas stations aren't very profitable. Most don't even make any real money on the gas!
So what happens when 1/4 of all their customers disappear? Many will close and when that happens there will be less competition, driving up gas prices which will result in more people buying electric cars. It's a cycle that--once it kicks off--is going to move very quickly. Faster than people, cities, and society are prepared for, that's for sure!
This is going to hit harder and than people realize. There are so many really great EV options from nearly every manufacture. And their sales figures are growing at a solid clip. According to Cox, EVs are 12% of new car sales in 22, and it's the only segment that grew YoY (the overall market fell 20% YoY).
