I lean toward "is," on average.

The assumption is that large course deviations are unlikely and not sudden. It's like air temperature: the best predictor of tomorrow's temperature, without knowing much or anything else, is today's temperature. A person in a strong relationship today is more likely to be in a relationship a month from now than someone in a "weaker" relationship today. You might say, "Well, that's obvious," but it's a similar lens to the one we use to look at other people's professional lives, which is that, by and large, people are more likely to be in the future what they have been for five years than what you think their potential might be.

As someone who worked in academia before moving to the technology sector, the main concern I found with hiring managers was that I would be "too academic." You may think these labels are meaningless: everyone can change and adapt quickly to new realities or to their jobs. But there is a certain mindset that undoubtedly can remain for quite some time, when not forever.