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That is a substantial value, to be sure.

But I also look at it the other way: COVID was perhaps the smallest scale event that could produce fundamental change in the way we (as in, humans) approach biodefense and disease control.

If we needed a wakeup call, better to have it now than ~2100, when we're estimated to reach peak population + continued concentration in cities.



This is what I've been saying all along. COVID-19 is just about the gentlest possible practice run for a seriously nasty pandemic. From what we've seen so far, if we did encounter something more deadly, we would not do well.


Peak population => we didn't figure out population control, so we need a virus to help out.




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