This one will probably be a lot larger though; crypto hasn’t seen a real economic recession as such and so many people believe (but in religious way) that it can weather it. If might survive but so far it just crashes together with everything and we will see below 10k this year for btc as people want and need cash and inflation hedges.

In full agreement here. Crypto will really crash when people who have money invested in crypto really need that money.

The past few "crashes" were just emotion driven, but for the most part people had plenty of money on hand (at least the current cohorts invested in crypto). This time we have a lot more everyday people invested and they have much smaller buffers to handle financial crisis.

They're going to want to get their money out of crypto, not because they're nervous about the price, but because they have other bills to pay. My guess is that will lead to the ultimate crash of crypto where it will return to a hobbyist activity for a few curious technical people.

I think 'winter' implies a long period of dormancy. The 'AI winter' was like a decade long. These were normal corrections.

in each case there was a 3-4 year period of relative dormancy because the next hype cycle

Sounds like typical market swings and gyrations in highly speculative markets. Happens in other boom-bust speculation assets from gold to oil to tulips. Are these "winters" or just wild market swings?