Yup it’s popping. But it’s not just crypto. The whole economy is popping. Crypto is first because it’s the most leveraged and least regulated. But it’s not going to end there, not by a long shot.
The whole economy is not popping. Only assets. Equity and crypto were both inflated and experiencing corrections. We're still hovering around 50/50 on likelihood of a real recession. Labor market is still incredibly tight. We could lose a million jobs in the US tomorrow and it would just alleviate upward pressure on wages. Equity will start to recover once inflation is tamped. Crypto, nobody knows. Could recover completely, could go to zero.
I think you're wrong. Fed seems determined to crush price inflation, but the inflation is largely driven by supply side issues, which they hold no control over. That means the only way to tamp inflation is by crushing demand into the ground, AKA causing a recession.
Soft landing talk was always talk, I think a recession is in the cards and they know it.
Ah, yes, "alleviate upward pressure on wages." What a nice way to say "give employers an excuse to continue refusing raises to employees so they can pocket higher profits at the expense of the entire working class."
The way we describe reality is indicative of, and somewhat shapes, our perception of it. Describing the likelihood that a long-overdue increase in real wages would be cut short by a recession as "alleviating upward pressure on wages"—with "alleviate" being a word with very strong connotations of referring to removing something negative—has a pretty clear implication of wanting that to happen.
I’m not parent but I think you’re reading too much into it. There is upward pressure and reducing that can be described as alleviating without any further connotation.
There is a very low amount of subprime mortgage loans. Risk isn't the same as it was during the last recession. Delinquency rate is also trending down.
Commercial real estate. A lot of contracts will be up for renewal / renegotiation in the next 6-18 months. Many companies will take the opportunity to downsize their physical footprints due to WFH.
People have been warned about high inflation before the war in Ukraine. Then the war broke out, and lots of things got more expensive (fuel, energy), and other commodities are yet to shoot up. Interest rates are going up to fight inflation.
So people are facing higher prices from all fronts. What are the first things to get sold off to afford all the various "real life" necessities? high-risk investments. Or any kind of investment, as most people simply do not have any investments.
