> Elon’s tunnels are the opposite of a transit solution.
A high capacity electric bus threw a tunnel is theoretically as efficient and far more dynamic, cheaper and easier to maintain and upgrade then any Subway. Its a mistake to draw conclusion from first generation products.
Really its just like a subway but each subway-car is a bit shorter and has its own propulsion system. Each car is no longer forced to stop at each station (clearly highly ineffective) and the network can do far more complex routing and more point to point transport.
You take advantage of the millions of EV battery and motors produced to get low cost and you make the tunnels cheap and dumb.
I don't understand why people are so resistant to this.
> Tesla is potentially getting its lunch eaten by competitors
If I had a penny for every-time I have heard this since 2014 I literally be a millionaire right now. Its a complete misunderstand of the EV business and what it takes to scale EV production. Had other companies gone all in on this in 2014-2016 range it might have been true.
VW who is one of he two biggest manufactures and was pushing for EV far earlier and harder then all non-Tesla competitors has clearly stated they hope to overtake Tesla in 2024 at best.
Others like BMW or Hyundai simply don't have the battery capacity or secured battery supply-chain to produce the number of vehicles to 'eat Tesla lunch'. You can look at those companies own projects for the next few years, even the optimistic projects are not close to those of Tesla.
> evaporate very quickly when faced with motivated and giant rivals.
Actually the major advantage that these 'rivals' have, having a profitable ICE business to subsidies their EV buildup is about to disappear faster.
And if you pay attention to Tesla growth you will see that they are really not that much smaller anymore. Tesla is on track to produce about 1.5 million vehicles this year and all of them pretty premium priced.
BMW Group is aiming to produce like ~2.6 million vehicles. And of course they have a massive legacy ICE business and are nowhere near able to invest what Tesla is in EV and Battery technology. Its very likely that in 2023 Tesla will outsell BMW already.
And in terms of being 'giant' what matters is how many EV you make. That dedicates of how large you can make your supply contracts with the large battery materials producers. Tesla is both the largest buyer of batteries but they are also dealing with the raw supply of materials themselves, having major contracts with the largest lithium, nickel and cobalt producers that other companies can only dream. Tesla buys more lithium then the rest of the German and US industry combined.
Tesla is the largest battery consumer of Panasonic and also one of the largest costumers of CATL and LG (ie largest manufactures of Japan, Korea and China). Plus Tesla themselves are on track to be largest battery producer from Europe/US themselves.
Given the Gas prices now, EV demand in general and Tesla demand in particular are constrained by production. Hyundai will sell ever Ionic they can make but they simply can't make enough even if it was 10x more popular then Tesla (and they are not based on any measure).
You also only mention interiors (matter of taste) while ignoring far more important things like charging that is far more relevant when it comes to EV sales.
Don't get me wrong, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is a great product. But the idea that because of that they are gone eat Tesla launch anytime in the next couple years will simply not hold up. The reality is 98% of the market is still non EV and every additional EV produced will not be one less EV produced by a competitor but one less ICE produced by a competitor.
The companies who you need to be afraid for is those that don't have large supply of battery and supply chains locked up over the next 4-5 years. The depreciation of ICE vehicles will be incredibly once EV hit a critical point and those manufacturers with lots of ICE exposure will be the once suffering the most.
A high capacity electric bus threw a tunnel is theoretically as efficient and far more dynamic, cheaper and easier to maintain and upgrade then any Subway. Its a mistake to draw conclusion from first generation products.
Really its just like a subway but each subway-car is a bit shorter and has its own propulsion system. Each car is no longer forced to stop at each station (clearly highly ineffective) and the network can do far more complex routing and more point to point transport.
You take advantage of the millions of EV battery and motors produced to get low cost and you make the tunnels cheap and dumb.
I don't understand why people are so resistant to this.
> Tesla is potentially getting its lunch eaten by competitors
If I had a penny for every-time I have heard this since 2014 I literally be a millionaire right now. Its a complete misunderstand of the EV business and what it takes to scale EV production. Had other companies gone all in on this in 2014-2016 range it might have been true.
VW who is one of he two biggest manufactures and was pushing for EV far earlier and harder then all non-Tesla competitors has clearly stated they hope to overtake Tesla in 2024 at best.
Others like BMW or Hyundai simply don't have the battery capacity or secured battery supply-chain to produce the number of vehicles to 'eat Tesla lunch'. You can look at those companies own projects for the next few years, even the optimistic projects are not close to those of Tesla.
> evaporate very quickly when faced with motivated and giant rivals.
Actually the major advantage that these 'rivals' have, having a profitable ICE business to subsidies their EV buildup is about to disappear faster.
And if you pay attention to Tesla growth you will see that they are really not that much smaller anymore. Tesla is on track to produce about 1.5 million vehicles this year and all of them pretty premium priced.
BMW Group is aiming to produce like ~2.6 million vehicles. And of course they have a massive legacy ICE business and are nowhere near able to invest what Tesla is in EV and Battery technology. Its very likely that in 2023 Tesla will outsell BMW already.
And in terms of being 'giant' what matters is how many EV you make. That dedicates of how large you can make your supply contracts with the large battery materials producers. Tesla is both the largest buyer of batteries but they are also dealing with the raw supply of materials themselves, having major contracts with the largest lithium, nickel and cobalt producers that other companies can only dream. Tesla buys more lithium then the rest of the German and US industry combined.
Tesla is the largest battery consumer of Panasonic and also one of the largest costumers of CATL and LG (ie largest manufactures of Japan, Korea and China). Plus Tesla themselves are on track to be largest battery producer from Europe/US themselves.
Given the Gas prices now, EV demand in general and Tesla demand in particular are constrained by production. Hyundai will sell ever Ionic they can make but they simply can't make enough even if it was 10x more popular then Tesla (and they are not based on any measure).
You also only mention interiors (matter of taste) while ignoring far more important things like charging that is far more relevant when it comes to EV sales.
Don't get me wrong, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is a great product. But the idea that because of that they are gone eat Tesla launch anytime in the next couple years will simply not hold up. The reality is 98% of the market is still non EV and every additional EV produced will not be one less EV produced by a competitor but one less ICE produced by a competitor.
The companies who you need to be afraid for is those that don't have large supply of battery and supply chains locked up over the next 4-5 years. The depreciation of ICE vehicles will be incredibly once EV hit a critical point and those manufacturers with lots of ICE exposure will be the once suffering the most.