From what I see, several countries are thinking really hard about their position regarding an EU army. Which is good. Sure, smaller countries in the heart of the EU like Denmark or the Netherlands do not benefit directly from a stronger European military and are often reluctant. But they still benefit from the stability of the union, which requires the ability to ensure the territorial integrity and control the borders of the member-states. Too much hangs in the balance to leave Romania’s border integrity as a purely Romanian responsibility. (I love our Romanian friends and I don’t doubt their commitment, but I’d rather not leave their military as the only bulwark against an unhinged Russian army).
Like Germany seems to be doing, they need to realise that they are part of a major power, and that they should stop playing the little guy hiding in his corner. An EU army should not be an offensive force, but is should be credible enough to safeguard the EU’s security.
Europe is small enough that there isn't many places > 2500 km away from the front line right now, I think a lot of parties are re-assessing what it means to not be on the 'outer border' of the EU. It certainly doesn't feel far. From here the nearest approach to an active warzone is now about 1600 km, which is a bit over what you can drive in a day. Not much of a safe zone, and my colleague is living within 200 km.
I think implicitly everybody has always relied on France having 'our' back, the French have been pretty strong and independent military wise over the last 35 years (and long before then, in fact) and have been very careful about what they do and what they don't subscribe to from a military point of view. No nuclear codes owned by the US for the French.
> I think implicitly everybody has always relied on France having 'our' back
Another huge asset that comes with France is a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.
> No nuclear codes owned by the US for the French.
Indeed. But the French arsenal is still tiny. I wonder if Putin would test it by annexing an “insignificant” part of a non-NATO EU member (so that’s pretty much a bit of forest in Finland). A somewhat blood-less operation like Crimea would be a real conundrum. Or would have been, 2 weeks ago: that there is a bit more resolve now.
If anything, the current war demonstrates the importance of sticking together.
I think a lot of things that countries were vehemently against went out the window 10 days ago, and I suspect that there are many more to come. This is a cusp, in more ways than one.
