Another theory being thrown around is that Putin also wants to reduce Russia's western defensive line by reducing it down to 600 km versus the 2000+ km it currently has after the break up of the Soviet Union. By taking non-nato nations on the European side, its back to the original line before the pre-soviet collapse.
That is just the same theory expressed in a different way. He cant control the people of Ukraine by giving then a decent life as a Russian satelite, so he's invading them to force a pro-Russian government on them.
I don't think I've seen that take and you may be mixing up what he says with what he thinks, always confusing when talking about blatant liars.
I've seen people saying that he thought he could force them to install a pro-russian regime (or further split the country) with shock and awe and merely the threat of great violence and underestimated the will and ability to resist, and overestimated his ability to project power, but not that he's totally disconnected from the reality of public opinion in Ukraine.
The whole point, whether the invasion worked really well or not, is that he needs to overule their democratic opinion by force. He seems to grasp that or nothing he's doing makes any sense.
Yes, but when people like Meirschiemer predicted this a decade ago, and blame the US and Ukraine for it because this is the obvious response to Ukraine trying to leave the Russian sphere of influence and other people who blame Putin also predicted it a decade ago for basically the same reasons, and also correctly predicted it last month when the "don't blame Putin" side was wrong, it seems theres a general consensus on what's happening even if who to 'blame' is apparently up for debate.
Yes, we know, whatever Putin does is also the fault of the West. Clearly, Europe and the USA are responsible for Russia invading Ukraine. /s
'Look at what you made him do'...
> Yes, but when people like Meirschiemer predicted this a decade ago
Seriously: I'm getting a a bit tired of people who can't even spell "Mearsheimer" are trotting him out at every opportunity to make it clear that he predicted all this and more, and that therefore 'the West is at fault here'.
So what? Seeing Ukraine and the Baltics as the obvious potential flashpoints in Europe does not require any degree of genius. The question that you forgot to ask was: was it inevitable or not? And if it was then whatever the response the West made was irrelevant, dictators do as they do.
I predict that Russia will at some point attempt to take over the Suwalki gap. When I'm proven right that won't amount to a thing, it is as logical as the sun coming up tomorrow morning.
As far as I'm aware, all sides think this is happening for the same reason, they only disagree about whose fault it is.
You raised the possibility that Putin invaded accidentally because someone told him Ukraine wanted to be invaded and he believed them, I don't think that adds up and if anyone is actually saying that it's more likely Russian propaganda than a serious attempt to understand Putin's motives.
I'd heard the Russian conscripts sent in to kill and be killed in Ukraine had been told that was what was going to happen, but not sure how far up the chain the lie is supposed to have started, and how many actually believed it.
Do not underestimate the degree of isolation for dictators in power. Nobody dares to bring the bad news, there is a fair chance that Putin is so isolated that he has no idea anymore what is really going on.
To bring bad news to a person like Putin is an act of bravery.
Have a look at that video of him belittling his chief of security and how the guy totally deflates. And that was only on the suggestion that maybe things weren't really going to plan.
I think there is a distinct possibility that Putin did not have all the facts before embarking on this invasion. And with every day that it continues Russia is more rather than less committed to see it through, whatever the price because they need to be able to declare victory in some way, even if that means that in the whole of Ukraine there isn't a single brick standing on another. Rationality went out the window last week, it likely won't be back for a while.
By all information available the Russians did not believe that their campaign would last longer than 3 days. Lots of little bits of evidence, starting with the amount of fuel and food given to the invaders to the stories those told to their family when after capture Ukrainians allowed them to communicate with their parents to the leaked news article that got withdrawn.
Ukraine is not homogenous. Check the results of the election, I'm sure the East of the country (and by Moldova) wouldn't mind being part of Russia, the rest not so much.
What you are sure of doesn't really matter though, does it?
Elections in occupied territory, especially when there are substantial doubts about the fairness of those elections in those territories (see the article you linked) make it hard to know what is really going on there. And regardless, Russia has already invaded on the pretext that Ukrainians had launched attacks on those regions (which turned out to be staged) so I think we're a bit past that point now.
Furthermore, there is plenty of evidence that the citizens of those regions are far, far from happy with the Russian invasion.
Ukraine may not be homogenous, but it became a lot more united a week ago.
