If it were just a certain dictator, the Ides of March are just around the corner. But, as you mentioned, it's not that simple.

Russians are in favor of Putin. And of course, the apparatus has been driving up approval ratings for him for months before this stunt. And now most Russian don't know anything from independent sources, some probably didn't even heard about that Ukraine Peace Operation. A lot of them just believe the whole narrative, because, well, it's the decadent West that says otherwise and 'they want to hold us down. They always do.'

So even if there is a fraction in the apparatus at all that would or could act, there alway looms the danger of a civil war for them.

Civil war in Russia is pretty much a given at some point. This can't go on forever. Though, it has gone on long enough that maybe that is based on a faulty assumption: that in the longer term the world trends to improvement. That might not be the case, we may be able to reach some local maximum and then fall back again.

Civil war? Majority supports the invasion, the rest is indifferent, and 0.1% are protesting (soon to be jailed).

Note the 'at some point': Russia can't go on like this, regardless of whatever popular support Putin has at this point in time. It's about as meaningful as the support for Kim in NK.

It's not the problem what we think they can get away with. The problem is what they think they can can get away with. And in what time frame. They obviously operate in a different frame of reference. Their military doctrine is also different from ours, apart from the obvious shortcomings at the moment. But it doesn't matter militaryly, they don't fight us, they fight the Ukraine. Because of their bloody nukes. A shame Patton was right in his motivation to stop the Soviets. That would have been before they get nukes themselves.

They have set the anchor in these negotiations between us and them. They want status quo ante 1997. They will at least get Ukraine. Perhaps Moldavia.

And they created chaos. Which always also bears opportunity.

And China will wait.

> They want status quo ante 1997

They can want whatever they want, doesn't mean they are going to get it.

> They don't fight us, they fight the Ukraine.

They don't fight us, they fight Poland!

This sort of thing doesn't really work.

Poland is NATO, other ballpark.

>> They can want whatever they want, doesn't mean they are going to get it.

They won't.

>> This sort of thing doesn't really work.

They somehow missed that.

They will pay.

I think you missed the reference.

Looks like.

Fog of War.

Watched a YouTube video and one of the people simply couldn't believe that Putin would attack Ukraine, even when shown pictures of the attacks, their line was "but they're Russian speakers like us, he wouldn't do that".

One of about 8 people seemed to genuinely support Putin (something like "he knows what he's doing, this is necessary").

Obviously just a vox pop but in general it seemed few supported the aggression and most were just afraid to talk about it.