What would be the endgoal when it comes to energy supply for Europe if sanctions keep mounting up?
Do you think Europe will innovate and join hands together with come up with better self contained sustainable renewable energy solutions? Or would you think this will ramp up arctic drilling?
My opinion: Let's first go beyond Europe. look at COP(s). Since the Paris agreement, developed country has failed to provide funding for the climate funds but more surprising is that they failed to show initiative to transfer technology for renewable energy production in developing and developed country. This shows the European and the US government has a tendency not innovate or not to share. The developing and LDC countries governments are bound to invest in fossil fuel plants.
Coming back to Europe we see the entire continent significantly reliant on one single country for their energy and fossil fuels. There is only one 'viable' and immediate solution, Arctic drilling.
If the effectiveness of sanctions have taught me anything, get them hooked into capitalism then use that as stick. Controlling arctic energy resources will essentially make Europe less reliant on Russia if both the United States and Canada starts heavily investing in it. It might not surprise you when it happens, but when it happens we will convince ourselves this was the right decision.
The conventional oil reserves are under water in the seas to the south. There is also shale oil in the east and west. None of this is really vulnerable to radioactive contamination.
I mean they're already well on their way to transitioning to a mix of renewables and electric vehicles. Well on their way does not mean, like 80% of the way. Maybe more like 25-40%?
I think they have a loose plan already, it's just taking a long time to materialize. Like the US, the EU sees how crappy renewables are without massive energy storage.
Lot's of windless and cloudy days this winter has meant cranking up the coal plants, or worse.
What I think the next selling point of fossil fuel is going to be LNG. I think LNG will be pitched as the lesser of evils. Coal plants will be used as a distraction and you will see everyone phasing out/down coal plants but every major country will eventually open up LNG terminals. Drilling gas from continental united states might not be viable but arctic drilling could be a viable plan.
healthy discussion disclaimer:
This information [1] kinda contradicts what I am saying but I studied petro engineering so I kinda have a bias. Also here is a wikipedia list that shows some European countries backing out of their LNG plans [2]. My theory hinges on the idea that, the moment arctic drilling gets traction we will see a radical shift on energy discussion. And if there is no immediate resolve to this conflict, arctic drilling will get pitched.
Even the strongest proposed sanctions against the Russia's financial systems carve out provisions for paying for fuel. And I suspect some of Europe will buy, and Russia will sell, because it'll need to buy certain Western goods.
(If you read The War With Newts, you can compare it to the European nations still selling drilling equipment to the newts when they were used it to destroy the Europe's very land.)
> Controlling arctic energy resources will essentially make Europe less reliant on Russia if both the United States and Canada starts heavily investing in it.
So you're saying we should enact the plot of "Don't Look Up", but in real life.
What would be the endgoal when it comes to energy supply for Europe if sanctions keep mounting up?
Do you think Europe will innovate and join hands together with come up with better self contained sustainable renewable energy solutions? Or would you think this will ramp up arctic drilling?
My opinion: Let's first go beyond Europe. look at COP(s). Since the Paris agreement, developed country has failed to provide funding for the climate funds but more surprising is that they failed to show initiative to transfer technology for renewable energy production in developing and developed country. This shows the European and the US government has a tendency not innovate or not to share. The developing and LDC countries governments are bound to invest in fossil fuel plants.
Coming back to Europe we see the entire continent significantly reliant on one single country for their energy and fossil fuels. There is only one 'viable' and immediate solution, Arctic drilling.
If the effectiveness of sanctions have taught me anything, get them hooked into capitalism then use that as stick. Controlling arctic energy resources will essentially make Europe less reliant on Russia if both the United States and Canada starts heavily investing in it. It might not surprise you when it happens, but when it happens we will convince ourselves this was the right decision.