The Chezhoslovakia 68 scenario - quick takeover of the capital center with the central government - that Putin planned has already failed, in particular Russia failed to take the airfields near Kiev and can't bring the quick assault forces.
Russia officially announced that they intentionally slowed the offense on Kiev now. That naturally a total BS. Ukrainians have won the opening, and Putin has no game forward. With German Stingers Russia's air superiority will be drastically reduced. Even flattening Kiev wouldn't help Putin as it is already obvious that Ukrainians will be shooting even from those piles
of rubble Stalingrad style, and Ukrainian forces will be growing with each day while Russian dwindling.
By moving onto Kiev right now Putin will be going down the Hitler's path of failed Blitzkrieg -> Stalingrad -> to be ultimately beaten back, in this case, to Moscow by the Ukrainian led coalition (there is no need for other countries to officially declare war as there is a well established pattern of well equipped volunteers, and there is no nuke issue as Russia will not strike its own territory, and in general Russians would hardly provide any resistance as the Putin's bottom really isn't worth it for them) with Nuremberg 2, etc.
Ukraine, even with volunteers from other countries, cannot take Moscow. And why do you believe that an authoritarian regime will hesitate to use nukes on its own soil, if its survival is at stake?
>Ukraine, even with volunteers from other countries, cannot take Moscow.
it definitely can't now. The destruction of Kiev, if it is to happen, will change a lot. Many more Russians would want to get rid of Putin, including many in the army. Ukraine and allies may not want to invade Russia, yet they may have no choice as leaving that regime in power would be a threat to their own safety. Similarly to how in WWII USSR couldn't just stop at the borders and had to go all the way to Berlin.
Has just heard on the Ukrainian TV, channel 5, "We're going to win. And this is our chance to destroy Russian Empire, and we're going to use it. .... That self-proclaimed genius strategist and strong man whom the leaders of powerful rich countries are so afraid of is getting beaten by just a good guy who recently was just a showman. We Christened Russia, and we're going to give it the last rites." - it is a very significant change of tone from the previous days.
Definitely change of tone - they are having a blast on TV - "To see Kiev and die. Looks like you're insisting on doing it in that your own peculiar way - well, be my guest."
>And why do you believe that an authoritarian regime will hesitate to use nukes on its own soil, if its survival is at stake?
Nuking those Russian heavily populated areas there would definitely be suicidal, even if somebody manage to press the button.
Again, we aren't at that point yet. And such a scenario isn't given. Instead Putin can pause/freeze the war - pull away from Kiev, and keep the several beachheads they've gotten so far. The promise of frozen (in reality slow burning) war instead of hot would as usually calm down the Europe/NATO and will make it a local Ukrainian problem again ... for some number of years until some new development ...
Russia officially announced that they intentionally slowed the offense on Kiev now. That naturally a total BS. Ukrainians have won the opening, and Putin has no game forward. With German Stingers Russia's air superiority will be drastically reduced. Even flattening Kiev wouldn't help Putin as it is already obvious that Ukrainians will be shooting even from those piles of rubble Stalingrad style, and Ukrainian forces will be growing with each day while Russian dwindling.
By moving onto Kiev right now Putin will be going down the Hitler's path of failed Blitzkrieg -> Stalingrad -> to be ultimately beaten back, in this case, to Moscow by the Ukrainian led coalition (there is no need for other countries to officially declare war as there is a well established pattern of well equipped volunteers, and there is no nuke issue as Russia will not strike its own territory, and in general Russians would hardly provide any resistance as the Putin's bottom really isn't worth it for them) with Nuremberg 2, etc.