Am I the only one who thinks that while what’s going on is reprehensible and terrible, it does actually make a lot of strategic sense from Putin’s POV and he is not, in fact, an idiot?
Ukraine is a pretty soft target and has great strategic value. After taking Crimea and installing favorable leaders in Belarus Russia was prepared to invade from all sides with no resistance (Which was probably planned years in advance). Europe is helplessly dependent on Russian gas, and won’t risk intervening. China is collaborating with them behind the scenes mitigating the West’s threats of sanctions.
From my perspective I see a highly intelligent, strategic set of decisions made over a long period of time. Unfortunately it seems most people seem to be ignorant to the facts and analyzing the situation emotionally.
> it does actually make a lot of strategic sense from Putin’s POV and he is not, in fact, an idiot?
I don't believe he's an idiot and I'm sure he knew that he could take the Ukraine without much resistance from the West. It comes with significant drawbacks, however - the EU might not cease trading completely, but the sanctions still hit the economy hard and their own stock market tanked. The war is also really expensive and quite unpopular, both inside Russia and on the global stage. Finland and Sweden will also most likely join the NATO now, which, while geographically not that important, still makes him a tad more surrounded. Lastly, a destroyed Ukraine full of people hating him is really not that useful.
It's a bit unexpected, but we also know now that the Ukraine is putting up quite fierce resistance and is not really a soft target. I was wrong about him invading at all, so my predictions about Russia might be wrong again, but I think invading was strategically a really bad move.
Minor correction: Putin did not install any leaders in Belarus. Lukashenko became a president years before anyone heard of Putin (1994). Lukashenko has always maintained close relationship with Putin's Russia and would have supported such invasion in 2014. The price for such support for Russia would be much higher back then though.
Ukraine is a pretty soft target and has great strategic value. After taking Crimea and installing favorable leaders in Belarus Russia was prepared to invade from all sides with no resistance (Which was probably planned years in advance). Europe is helplessly dependent on Russian gas, and won’t risk intervening. China is collaborating with them behind the scenes mitigating the West’s threats of sanctions.
From my perspective I see a highly intelligent, strategic set of decisions made over a long period of time. Unfortunately it seems most people seem to be ignorant to the facts and analyzing the situation emotionally.