Russia supposedly stopped the offensive yesterday for negotiations and it's now back on. Makes sense considering how calm the front was yesterday and how we are seeing tons of movement today. But of course that could be pure BS, it's hard to even get verification that things were actually calm yesterday since both sides have a pretty solid opsec... at least compared to what I got used to with the syrian civil war!
> Russia supposedly stopped the offensive yesterday for negotiations and it's now back on.
An important caveat is that this is according to Russia.
Ukraine's version is quite different (it was Russia's attempt to lure Ukraine's top officials to Minsk, which is the only place where Russia is prepared to conduct the talks).
In any event, it seems pretty clear that there was no actual ceasefire yesterday or today.
Agreed 100% that this is absolutely just from russian and like very pro russian sources. The only reason why I give it any credit is that it fits with the reality on the ground. If russia was pushing and got actually stalled, I'd have expected to see a lot more air raids and shelling. Yesterday was weirdly calm, even when it comes to airstrikes, bombings etc. Not exactly the signs of a desperate push
Judging by the many videos of interrogations of Russian POWs, many of them are just kids who barely know where they are, are unmotivated and poorly equipped. Hardly a professional and well-equipped army. There are also indications of logistical challenges (videos of Russian military vehicles running out of fuel, that sort of thing).
Running out of fuel is pretty common in military vehicles as the fuel gauges are at best reliable to half a tank.
Drivers are supposed to track how far they have driven, but if its driven by multiple people and someone forgets to log distance or the vehicle is forced to idle for a long time the distance can be off.
Also a broken fuel gauge will not mark the vehicle as a casualty. Its not critical equipment as your supposed to be tracking fuel usage as a driver.
Again, the source that your other comment cites is a Kremlin propaganda outlet. There's little reason to trust it to accurately represent Ukraine government's position on anything related to this war.
> This "evidently Ukrainian site" is a Kremlin propaganda outlet
I'm not going reasoning here about how propagandistic is stopfake itself, because, as I already said, if you only wanted, you could easily find some information about this s*ithole for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t05R_cPVjtU
but I ask you:
did you find any confirmation or refutation of my words?
is the current advisor of the president of Ukraine any pro russian?
That is most certainly BS. There is no doubt, no question.
For the past several months Russia’s stated efforts at diplomacy have been an utter farce, the saying “pissing on you and saying it’s rain” does not go far enough.
Now all of a sudden Russia says they paused for negotiations… “fool me once shame on you; fool me 100 times with the same ruse, I should stop taking drugs”
It seems that the Russians are having logistical issues. They are running out of gas. Not sure how but it seems like it.
We are hearing today about them sending in more armored divisions. These will re enforce the supply lines. But this is a really risky play. It is a double edge sword. Now that they send more in they need even more gas. And if they run out they suffer a larger loss. What good are 4,000 tanks without fuel? Suddenly your armored division are infantry divisions who are outgunned on foreign soil.
The less risky play would be to withdraw there armor pretty far back. But this means an extend war. Which they should lose do to basically endless international support to the Ukraine and their willingness to fight.
So the play would be to pull back and stick to claiming the small section of the separateness region they have capture so far. This is will happened when the last of the armored units cross the line to cover the retreat. Given Ukraine can last four more days and keep the supply lines broken.
