>Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation?
The war was over before it began. The Ukrainian government telling people to take up arms is completely suicidal. War in the 21st century begins and ends with air superiority. Nothing else matters at all. Once air superiority is established, the war is over. And Russia is flying with absolute impunity over all of Ukraine now. The smartest decision is total capitulation at this point. Because Putin will stop at nothing and will not respect any form of ROE. The alternative is Kyiv being reduced to rubble and tens of thousands dead.
>The US/NATO/UN should establish a no-fly zone over the country (well, the UN is out because Russia has permanent veto power).
If this were Bosnia or Libya, we would. But the reality is that we are now playing chicken with a lunatic that has his finger on the worlds largest arsenal of nuclear ICBMs.
>Do you think Stinger missiles will make a difference?
Not enough to deny the airspace. And they are useless against high altitude bombers/attackers. But the real threat is not so much getting bombed from the air, but the fact the Russia will be able to move and deploy their artillery/MLRS completely at will due to air superiority. No doubt we will see cities flattened if prolonged urban fighting drags out.
The war was over before it began. The Ukrainian government telling people to take up arms is completely suicidal. War in the 21st century begins and ends with air superiority. Nothing else matters at all. Once air superiority is established, the war is over. And Russia is flying with absolute impunity over all of Ukraine now. The smartest decision is total capitulation at this point. Because Putin will stop at nothing and will not respect any form of ROE. The alternative is Kyiv being reduced to rubble and tens of thousands dead.