The problem here is "the bigger picture". The security guard can improve his heuristic by studying criminology (or rather just talking to other security guards who have been robbed).

what sounds were made, are sounds of the wind different to breaking glass? Have burglaries been on the increase lately? When did he last check the car park was there a suspicious car there?

What I am trying to say is that each of the examples given is really just a strawman - in each case looking for more data - you can spot truth in the data