I think React is pretty soon gonna share same fate as jQuery. Svelte is slowly picking some steam, and with recent move of original author to Vercel I am more confident than ever that momentum is shifting. My friend directly got to work with Carmack, and him moving away directly from project should tell a lot about what the future of the hardware holds with FB.
Microsoft had to rewire itself in order to recover from Windows. Facebook (or Meta) needs same. Microsoft had to bring in a new leader, I think Zuck should step down, and bring somebody different before it's too late. I can imagine a fight for throne happening inside already.
I think you're underestimating a few things here re React:
1. Before the React/Vue era, there was so much JS churn and many devs who went through that are not looking to change anytime soon.
2. Even if React goes into keep the lights on mode, what is going to compel someone to not choose React at this point? The uniformity of it in the JS world, the stability, and the flexibility make it a great fit for most use cases. What value proposition is it failing that would make it lose its place as the dominant front end framework?
It would take a massive, worthwhile new paradigm shift to occur in the JS world to unseat React IMO, and I don't see that happening anytime in the next few years simply because there is no need. React works TM which is big.
On what timeline though? Vue was looking to be a very strong contender to passing up React, but that has dwindled and it's a solid second alternative but won't end up usurping React. Next.js is one of the biggest hotnesses around web development in general right now, bigger than Svelte, and based on React. While Svelte is nice and shows promise, it's still in the "early Vue" stage and has a long long way to go to make React into a jQuery. Not to mention how ubiquitous jQuery still is.
Microsoft had to rewire itself in order to recover from Windows. Facebook (or Meta) needs same. Microsoft had to bring in a new leader, I think Zuck should step down, and bring somebody different before it's too late. I can imagine a fight for throne happening inside already.