In the US, even before the pandemic, ICUs were typically run at very close to capacity. From Becker's Hospital Review[1]:
> For most level 1 trauma centers and tertiary care facilities, operating intensive care units at 80 percent to 90 percent capacity is standard — even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
In bad flu years, ERs are commonly overwhelmed[2] even though we obviously have vaccines that provide so-so protection:
I suspect that the situation in Europe is much the same.
Even if the vaccines continue to provide good protection against hospitalization, that doesn't mean that breakthrough infections won't have any impact on the healthcare system. As an anecdote, I just learned that a friend, who is a super fit collegiate athlete, just had a breakthrough infection and almost went to the ER because her symptoms were quite bad. She decided against it and the symptoms subsided within a couple of days, but if you hear about and read enough reports about breakthrough infections, it's pretty clear that it's not rare for "mild" cases to be pretty rough -- rough enough to have some people thinking about a visit to the hospital.
SARS-CoV-2 is well on its way to being endemic (it basically already is) so if we're being honest about getting back to normal, it's time for public health decision makers to be more realistic about the impact the virus will have on the healthcare system. Practically speaking, that means being prepared for high utilization and expanding capacity.
"but if you hear about and read enough reports about breakthrough infections, it's pretty clear that it's not rare for "mild" cases to be pretty rough"
That's me to a tee. Full vax by mid May, the worse fever of my life in Sept. Lasted five days and it felt like my brain was swelled.
The variants are way ahead of the vaccines. Perhaps the vaccines reduce symptoms -- I had no respiratory symptoms, for which I'm very grateful -- but not getting this is pretty much not an option; you are going to get it.
Eliminating or eradicating this is not feasible near term. I'm just astonished the official mainstream narrative is still indulging that concept.
> For most level 1 trauma centers and tertiary care facilities, operating intensive care units at 80 percent to 90 percent capacity is standard — even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
In bad flu years, ERs are commonly overwhelmed[2] even though we obviously have vaccines that provide so-so protection:
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
I suspect that the situation in Europe is much the same.
Even if the vaccines continue to provide good protection against hospitalization, that doesn't mean that breakthrough infections won't have any impact on the healthcare system. As an anecdote, I just learned that a friend, who is a super fit collegiate athlete, just had a breakthrough infection and almost went to the ER because her symptoms were quite bad. She decided against it and the symptoms subsided within a couple of days, but if you hear about and read enough reports about breakthrough infections, it's pretty clear that it's not rare for "mild" cases to be pretty rough -- rough enough to have some people thinking about a visit to the hospital.
SARS-CoV-2 is well on its way to being endemic (it basically already is) so if we're being honest about getting back to normal, it's time for public health decision makers to be more realistic about the impact the virus will have on the healthcare system. Practically speaking, that means being prepared for high utilization and expanding capacity.
[1] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/2-healthc...
[2] https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...