The government didn't even grant people a months worth of rent in my city. Not sure how that lead to such a huge infusion of demand that continues to persist, unless there are just that many people with very little rent who are driving this demand. Seems like such a small amount in the grand scheme of things considering most people even working a minimum wage job might see more money back on a tax return than the measly $1200 that's been dispersed.
Not sure where you live, but a family of two adults and 3 kids got $13,900 in stimulus checks so far in the USA, not counting the expanded child tax credits (which would be another $5400 if the kids are young, dispersed in $900 monthly payments for the last 6 months of the year).
Even a single adult with no kids would have gotten $3,200 so far.
It isn’t just direct stimulus to private citizens.
It’s the near zero interest rate policy, the literally illegal purchasing of mortgage and corporate bonds by the fed and so much more that is flushing the entire economy with trillions of dollars.
So what exactly happens in between the fed purchasing mortgage bonds and allegedly consumer driven supply runs on everything from toilet paper to golf clubs?
As the fed buys bonds, it raises the price which lowers the rate.
As rates are lowered for things like mortgages and corporate bonds, people and corporations have more money to spend. Which they do generally spend which stimulates the economy.
Lower rates also cause corporations and people to borrow more which in a fractional reserve banking system actually creates money out of thin air. The reason why corporations borrow more is because with a lower WACC (weight average cost capital) they can invest in more projects (I.e. spend money) for any initiative that has a positive NPV.
Not everyone is a homeowner and on top of that not every homeowner has refinanced their home during covid. I don't think people are borrowing money to buy toilet paper or a golf club. How do lower rates for corporate loans affect behavior that's at the consumer level? I'm trying to understand this relationship better.
It doesn't directly go from fed to toilet paper. It starts with fed, inflates assets like real estate, stocks, commodities and leaks into actual economy due to the expected returns on these assets. For example, rents, prices of hardware and capital intensive sectors, oil all go up because on one hand these are getting indirectly pumped up by suppressed yields on bonds thanks to fed while on the other hand they are also getting consumed by economy (industry/people) which has to pay more to match the appreciation in prices to use/consume them.
All this results in higher wage expectations due to people expecting higher wages based on higher prices (gasoline, cars etc) which moves the fed money to people's hands and increases the prices of consumer goods including fmcg like TP.
As you can see there is a long link from cause to effect which is why we are seeing the slow increase in inflation. In many sectors like agriculture this is not even priced in yet as they are ultra competitive. But as their inputs go up (people and raw materials, hardware ), they will also have to increase prices.
Even when eventually fed raises rates or tapers their buying, prices once gone up have a way of sticking around unless efficiency improvements like automation reduce input costs.
Are people actually seeing higher wages on the whole? Some cities have raised minimum wages like a few dollars more an hour but minimum wages have not been keeping pace with inflation as it was. Has median wage gone up in this time? My understanding has been that wages have been pretty flat for middle income earners for years despite cost of living increases rising over these same years.
Scenario 1: Fed buys $20 billion of corporate bonds per month from Microsoft.
Scenario 2: Fed does not buy $20 billion of corporate bonds per month from Microsoft.
Consider all other things being equal, in the first scenario Microsoft's borrowing costs are drastically reduced. This means that Microsoft has more money. This means that Microsoft is able to hire more people, that the people that work for them get larger bonuses because they are typically tied to the profitability of the company.
This puts more money into real people's hands to buy toilet paper and golf clubs. That then multiplies throughout the economy. Suggestions for additional reading if you are really interested in these things:
People are borrowing money to buy toilet paper and golf clubs? I think you are missing some details in the path from mortgage bonds -> your average consumer buying average consumer goods. I'm not being cynical or anything, I'd just like to understand this relationship a bit better.
I think it's less taking a loan to buy golf clubs and more "feeling less financially stretched makes people more willing to spend money."
Example: Joe just had a kid and was going to buy a house in a good school district no matter the cost. With a higher mortgage rates, he'd have wound up house poor for a few years. With today's rates, he has a comfortable savings rate. Since he's not scrimping, he decides this month he'll buy that putter he'd been eying.
My understanding with housing is that is nearly always costs the same amount no matter what mortgage rate is, so in times of high rates list price is lower, times of low rates list price is higher, and adjusted for inflation the ultimate montly payment of mortgage+interest remains about the same. Seems like if you bought today you'd have to cough up a huge down payment vs when rates were higher, and its this initial costs from things like down payment and paying pmi that makes people initially house poor.
